Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011511 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1111 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR SE CT...THIS LEAVES ONLY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS MAIN TRIGGERS FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK THE INTERIOR WILL SEE ONLY SCT COVERAGE AT MOST...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INVOF NYC. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR KILLS SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALSO INVERTED-V LOOK TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING... BUT A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. OTHERWISE A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY SW FLOW EXPECTED. GUST POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE FRONT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AS SW WINDS PERSISTS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH WITH SEA BREEZE AFTER 16-17Z. ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FROM THE SW AND GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AFTER 17Z. ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FROM THE SW AND GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AFTER 17Z. ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FROM THE SW AND GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AFTER 17Z. ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FROM THE SW AND GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AFTER 17Z. ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY LINGERING CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N. .SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
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&& .MARINE... OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. && .HYDROLOGY...
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ISOLATED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...PW

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