Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200434 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area today through Wednesday night remaining in the well offshore Western Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Bands of showers on the outer periphery of Jose continue to rotate into eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Further north and west, showers have been more widely scattered. Have trended PoPs downward across the interior, NYC, and western Long Island and southwest Connecticut. Showers will remain light overall with just some embedded moderate downpours. Heading towards day break, showers should be confided to the east end of Long Island. Jose otherwise remains over the Atlantic. Winds across the local area have picked up a bit as the low center has drawn closer, but are still below tropical storm force at the buoys. An earlier spotter report at Orient indicated 31 mph sustained.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Jose is forecast to slowly move northeast and continue to weaken into Wednesday. It is forecast to move slowly more eastward direction, relatively farther offshore. Meanwhile, weak high pressure remains in Southeast Canada, building west of the region through this time period. This will keep a relatively tight pressure gradient across Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with northerly flow. The potential still will exist for tropical storm force winds across Suffolk County, particularly the twin forks Wednesday but most winds are expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph sustained range with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. Some higher gusts will be possible at times. Winds are less to the north and west of Suffolk County. A gradual loosening of the pressure gradient is shown across the local region Wednesday night as Jose is forecast to move farther away and high pressure starts to build closer into the region. Winds are forecast to lower late Wednesday night as a result. Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as outer bands of Jose likely stay offshore. . Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night, tonight and Wednesday night, with values in the mid to upper 60s. Highs Wednesday are expected to be warmer in the west and cooler to the east, a range from the lower 80s to lower 70s. With still long period swells allowing surf to build, high surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue Wednesday for Atlantic beaches.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is a lot of uncertainty in the long term forecast due to the uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250- 300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details of Jose from run to run. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tropical cyclone Jose will track to the NE tonight and remain off southern New England coast on Wednesday. Bands of showers continue to pivot into the area from the east. Guidance is indicating this activity persists through around 05z or so before ending. Intensity is mainly light although there could be an isold moderate to heavy showers with vsby briefly dropping to MVFR or even IFR. Otherwise...MVFR to locally IFR cigs are expected to return across the area through 06z from east to west. A gusty NNE flow will continue into tonight, gradually shifting to the NNW by Wednesday morning. Gusts in the 20-30 kt range are expected through the night at the city terminals, with gusts of 25-30 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease and cigs improve back to VFR during the day Wednesday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...VFR. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city terminals. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Jose lifts slowly north through the Western Atlantic, eventually moving more northeast tonight and then more east Wednesday into Wednesday night. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. Ocean seas in response to increasing long period swells and increasing winds are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft into tonight and stay near that range Wednesday. Seas near the entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range tonight. In terms of winds, highest winds will be on the ocean, farther offshore where the tighter pressure gradient will be and here is where some tropical storm force winds are expected, particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Hence, the tropical storm warning remains in effect for the ocean. The South Shore Bays and Peconic and Gardiners Bays remain in a tropical storm watch. For the Long Island Sound and NY Harbor, winds will not reach as high, with sustained winds of near 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt. Therefore, those waters have a small craft advisory that remains in effect through Wednesday. Seas and winds trend down Wednesday night as pressure gradient slightly weakens. Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain below advisory criteria through the weekend. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Additional rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range from near 0.25 inches across much of Long Island with near one half inch across far eastern Long Island. Locally higher rainfall amounts will be possible. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. No hydrologic problems are otherwise anticipated through early next week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 7-13 ft tonight into Wed morning. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) through Wednesday. With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft...locally 2 1/2 ft...of surge during tonight into Wed morning high tide cycles, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the beachfront. High surf will fall Wed afternoon into Wed Night, but remain rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles se of the region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the coast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178- 179. Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ071-078>081-177. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-179. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JMC/DS SHORT TERM...JM/DS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION... MARINE...JC/JM HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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