Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240916 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 416 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front to the north retreats back as a warm front on Friday. High pressure will remain steady over the western Atlantic through Friday night. A frontal system approaches Saturday and crosses the region Saturday Night. High pressure builds towards the area Sunday into Monday. A couple of fast moving disturbances may bring unsettled conditions to area Monday Night into the middle and late part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... East coast ridging and western atlantic high pressure control the region today. Models have backed off on how far south a weak cold front will press early this morning...stalling across NW hills or just north of the region early this morning. A few shower possible across nw hills this morning with approaching weak shortwave...but most concentrated activity appears to be across central NY/New england. With region in warm sector...another early spring like day today. Model soundings and high-res guidance indicating potential for stratus/fog to briefly developing across LI/SE CT around daybreak...with a gradual improvement in the morning. With 50 Td airmass running over the 40 degree waters...climo and high res guidance pointing towards advection fog/stratus developing along the NJ coast and working northward towards the south and east coastal areas this aft/eve. Not much indication of stratus development across the interior this morning...and expectation is for mostly sunny skies with just some high/mid deck filtering sunshine. With SW flow aloft and plenty of sunshine...temps across NYC metro/NE NJ/Lower Hud/and interior SW Ct should be able to climb well into the 60s...with lower 70s for areas W of the Hudson River with deeper mixing. Marine influence will likely limit temps to the 50s for coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... East coast ridging tonight...will give way to a central plains PAC upper low shearing into Hudson bay low on Saturday...with associated trough and frontal system swinging towards the region late in the day and then though Sat night. Coastal stratus/fog development are favored in a second night of mild/moist southerly flow tonight. Models soundings and high- res/SREF guidance strongly indicating more widespread stratus/fog development across much of the region tonight...which may linger across CT/LI much of the day with low-level flow backing more to the s/se. Temps will likely be cooler on Sat with more of an onshore flow and cloud cover...with temps ranging from well into the 60s for areas well NW and W of the 50s for south and east coastal areas once again. Not much in the way of forcing or focus for rain overnight into Sat shower threat should be isolated at best. Can`t rule our some patchy drizzle development later tonight into Sat morning as well if low-levels saturate sufficiently...but low confidence at this point. Main rain activity will be along and immediately behind an approaching frontal system. A narrow band of convection will likely approach from PA/NY along the leading edge of the front late Sat into Sat eve...with strong convergence of marginally unstable and +2- 3 std PWAT airmass advecting in along a 40 kt llj...aided by approaching shortwave axis forcing. Potential for a brief period of heavy rain...30-40 mph wind gusts and embedded thunder with this line...mainly west of the there should be some weak surface/elevated instability to work with. This line should weaken as it encounters the stable marine layer along the coast. Otherwise...some lighter post frontal activity Sat eve ahead of approaching shortwave axis...before shifting offshore by around midnight. In the wake of the shortwave axis/cold front Sat night...a dry and cooler airmass will build in on breezy NW flow. With strong caa and deep mixing in wake of cold front...winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds towards the area on Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 40s with low temperatures Sunday night in the low to mid 30s along the coast and upper 20s inland. High pressure moves offshore Monday, as a storm system moves out of the mid Atlantic states Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of rain and snow are possible with the storm system. Light rain is possible again on Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as a warm front pushes north of the region Wednesday, followed by a cold front later Wednesday. High Pressure builds behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures during this period should be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front remains north of the Tri-State Region today. A cold front approaches on Saturday. All of the area was VFR at 9Z. The main concern is that stratus and fog develop right over the area through this morning. No significant changes have been made to the TAFs yet. If development does occur, it may linger along at least the south coast, including JFK, most if not all of the day. The stratus and fog will attempt to develop along the coast this afternoon, then should rapidly develop and overspread the area this evening. Timing of restrictions may be sped up in the 12Z TAFs. Southerly flow generally at or below 10kt is expected through the TAF period. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. KLGA TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. KEWR TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. KHPN TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. KISP TAF Comments:There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or lower conditions. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Tonight-Saturday...Mainly IFR or lower into Saturday morning before possibly improving to MVFR or VFR. .Saturday night...MVFR or lower likely with rain. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Possible MVFR in showers. && .MARINE... Persistent S/SW flow around western atlantic high pressure and long period east swells of around 10 will have seas hovering around 4 to 5 ft through Saturday morning.Will hold off of SCA due to marginal nature of hazard. Ocean seas should gradually build to SCA levels Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front...with marginal SCA gusts possible. Higher confidence is in SCA gusts in the wake of frontal passage Sat Night...with even potential for a brief period of gale gusts. SCA conditions expected to continue across the ocean waters on Sunday. Winds and waves will then gradually subside Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves south of the area. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be Monday night into Tuesday as winds strengthen following a warm frontal passage. Winds and seas may remain at or near Small Craft Advisory conditions through late week ahead of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is likely Saturday...with locally up to an inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Friday February 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........75 (1985) 68 LaGuardia...........73 (1985) 67 Kennedy.............60 (1984) 57 Islip...............59 (2000) 56 Newark..............73 (1985) 70 Bridgeport..........60 (2016) 56 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Saturday February 25, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........51 (1930) 50 LaGuardia...........49 (1996) 50 Kennedy.............46 (1996) 48 Islip...............47 (1996) 47 Newark..............47 (1996) 47 Bridgeport..........44 (1996) 46 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JC MARINE...Fig/NV HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV CLIMATE...NV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.