Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230525 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 125 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. GUSTY WINDS ON A NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FAR OFFSHORE. OCEAN BUOYS ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY FLOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE EXTRA COOLING AS CLOUDS EXIT SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. THINKING THAT WINDS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT.
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS PAST HOUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE NW FLOW SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 5 OR 6 AM. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE W...THEN SW AROUND 10KT DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS IN THE TEENS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER SW FLOW AT KJFK DUE TO POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR. .SUN...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .MON...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .TUE...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS. .WED...POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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EXPECT WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 25 KT ON ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SAT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. THESE CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MET NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/JM SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...PW MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET/JM FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/MET

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