Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270944 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 444 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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...AN UPDATE TO HAZARDS IS COMING SHORTLY... ...FROM PREVIOUS... SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES. MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTION. SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES. THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ** IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL. SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS G25-35KT. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTN. .SAT...VFR. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTN. .SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND. CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE BLIZZARD. LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.
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&& .CLIMATE... THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY... AMOUNT DATES 26.9 FEB 11-12 2006 25.8 DEC 26-27 1947 21.0 MAR 12-13 1888 20.9 FEB 25-26 2010 20.2 JAN 7-8 1996 20.0 DEC 26-27 2010 19.8 FEB 16-17 2003 19.0 JAN 26-27 2011 18.1 JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941 18.0 DEC 26 1872 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009- 010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079- 081. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071- 073-078-176-177. NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345- 353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...BC MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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