Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 272002 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 402 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue to approach from the west for tonight. This front will weaken and eventually move across Thursday. The front and a developing area of low pressure to the southeast of this front will move east of the region Thursday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front continues to approach from the west. Doppler radar indicates more areas of light rain moving across the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeast NJ. Chances for rain increase elsewhere going into early this evening. Upper level jet streak SW to NE continues to approach from the west tonight. From forecast models, it appears that the local region gets closer to the right rear quadrant of this jet streak late tonight into early Thursday morning. There will be increasing divergence aloft, with vertical lift increasing tonight. Rain will overspread the region from west to east, intensifying overnight into early Thursday morning. Rain looks to be stratiform rain mostly. At the surface, the cold front continues to approach tonight while simultaneously weakening. Layer precipitable water reaches near 1 to 1.2 inches, above climatology. Low temperatures are a blend of consensus or raw model data and the NBM 50th percentile, staying in the low to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Aloft on Thursday, the upper level jet streak will continue to be maximized north and west of the region, thereby with the local region remaining near the right rear quad. On a larger scale, the upper level trough becomes more negatively tilted. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front will continue to weaken and move across the region during the day. The front may very dissipate during the afternoon. During the afternoon, low pressure in the Atlantic will be moving northeast and will become more of a factor in terms of the local weather. The forecast has more northerly flow across the entire area Thursday afternoon, but not that gusty until towards the evening. High temperatures Thursday are a blend of consensus of raw model data and the NBM, only getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rain will continue through the day especially along the coast where divergence aloft appears greater in the models. The divergence is less across the interior areas and with drier air moving in, chances for rain will lower during the afternoon across these interior locations, mainly across interior Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. For Thursday night, rain holds on across the coastal areas, especially Eastern Long Island and Southeast CT. Colder and drier air will advect in from the north. May even have some chances of snow mixing in across parts of the region before all precipitation comes to an end. Winds will become gusty from the north as low pressure deepens out in the Atlantic getting east of the 40N/70W benchmark and high pressure building in from South Central Canada. Gusts up to near 30 mph are forecast and higher gusts are possible, perhaps up to near 40 mph. Forecast lows are mainly in the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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No significant changes in the long term period, as precipitation will be ending across the eastern portion of the forecast area Friday morning. With near zonal flow a clipper type system is expected to quickly approach Saturday afternoon and pass to the east and south Saturday night, as the associated upper trough phases with the low over the Canadian Maritimes. Zonal flow become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal temperatures through much of the extended period, except slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front slowly approaches tonight from the west. A wave of low pressure then approaches from the south into Thursday. VFR conditions have become more widespread for the terminals early this afternoon. Showers continue to develop to the west which will move into the area into this evening. MVFR cigs will move in with these showers into this evening. Cigs likely continue to lower to IFR for most terminals by 4Z with rain becoming more widespread. LIFR conditions will be possible for all terminals overnight, though coastal and outlying terminals (KISP, KGON, KBDR, KHPN) may have a higher chance of seeing LIFR cigs overnight and into Thursday morning. IFR conditions likely continue much of the day Thursday with rain continuing. Slight improvements to MVFR are possible Thursday afternoon for the NYC terminals. Winds will be fairly light at around 5 kt out of the N/NE through the overnight and into the Thursday morning push. Winds then shift to the NW and increase to 10-15kt Thursday late morning into the afternoon. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of category changes may be off by several hours. LIFR cigs possible overnight but timing and coverage uncertain. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday afternoon: IFR with rain, eventually tapering off late at night except at KGON. Improvement to MVFR late afternoon into the overnight. NW wind gusts Thursday night to near 20 kt. Friday: MVFR early, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night. Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening. Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA for ocean seas continues, although it becoming more marginal for those seas for western ocean, Sandy Hook to Fire Island offshore waters. To the east, SCA for ocean seas extended through the day Thursday due to higher seas near 5 ft. For Thursday night, pressure gradient tightens with SCA wind gusts expected for all waters and even the potential for gales across the ocean. Gale watch for the ocean has been hoisted for Thursday night with SCA for non-ocean waters. Small craft advisory gusts will be ongoing across the forecast waters Friday as deepening low pressure tracks northward into the Canadian Maritimes. There is a chance that gusts could approach gale force on the eastern ocean waters late Friday as the low deepens. SCA gusts will continues into Friday night on all the waters except for New York Harbor as conditions will be gradually improving from the west and south during Saturday into Saturday evening as the low tracks farther to the north through eastern Canada and weakens, as a clipper type system approaches Saturday night. A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain expected tonight through Thursday night. With mostly a steady stratiform rainfall, not expecting any flooding from this. Any locally heavier rainfall could produce some minor nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas but that is it. Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle of next week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MW MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

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