Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 021603 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1203 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE. ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT INDEED HAPPENS. FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME. A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR. .WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/ LOW CLOUDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND FORECAST TO CONTINUE. SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.