Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210603 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 203 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Sunday. A series of weather systems impact the area next week, resulting in a period of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clouds continue to sink to the south and east with only scattered to broken cirrus. The forecast remains on track this evening. Surface high pressure remains over the region tonight with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain cool tonight with lows falling into the 40s. The only exceptions will be in and around the NYC metro area where lows will only fall into the lower 50s and across the Long Island pine barrens where upper 30s will be possible. A MAV/MET blend was used for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure slowly moves offshore as a frontal boundary starts to approach the region. Expect increasing mid and high clouds through the day Sunday. It will be another cool day with highs only in the 60d. POPs will gradually increase Sunday night as the frontal boundary approaches the region. Showers will become increasingly likely as the night progresses. A warm front approaches, with the cold front lagging back into PA by early Monday morning. With overcast skies and southwest flow, temperatures won`t fall much Sunday night. Lows only drop into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper trough over the central U.S. will move slowly east through next week, resulting in unsettled weather through the period as a series of lows bring multiple chances for rain to the region. The first of these systems will impact the area during the day on Monday, as a low moving through the Great Lakes sends a cold front through the area. While models differ in the exact placement of the axis of the heaviest rain, this will bring widespread rainfall to the region on Monday, along with a few thunderstorms during the daylight hours. Rain will begin to taper off Monday evening before ending everywhere early Tuesday morning. This will usher in a relatively dry period Tuesday into Tuesday night as the area will be in between systems. Differences begin to emerge in the models toward midweek as the trough amplifies over the midwest and southern plains, with the ECMWF indicating a slightly sharper trough with a slightly slower eastward progression. This results in differences in the timing and location of the resulting shortwaves and associated sensible weather. Kept PoPs at chance during the Wednesday-Thursday time period for now due to this uncertainty, but do expect another round of rain during the midweek time period. The trough finally begins to exit to the east on Friday as a ridge builds in from the west, with only a few lingering showers by late Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will start out below normal on Monday before moderating to near normal for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR forecast through the TAF period. High pressure moves offshore today as a frontal system approaches from the west. Winds will once again be the challenge today. Light S winds continue at the metro terminals...vrb to calm elsewhere. The S winds are expected to back to the SE by 09z with a E-NE flow developing around 12z for a few hours...then veer back to the SE 10-15 kt mid to late morning. Timing of all these shifts could be +/- 1-2 hours...however speeds will be less than 10 kt until mid-late morning. Gusts don`t appear likely at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON where temps will be cooler with the onshore flow. However warmer locations are expected to gust up to 20kt this aftn. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR tonight lowering to IFR on Monday in showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...Becoming VFR. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure over the area will keep conditions below Small Craft levels through Sunday. Gusts may approach SCA conditions Sunday night and Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds and seas then remain below SCA conditions until midweek when seas begin to increase ahead of the next system. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall on Monday could result in minor poor drainage/urban flooding, but otherwise to not anticipate any hydrologic impacts. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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