Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310738 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 338 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95 TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT... GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME THERMAL TROUGH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAY BREAK. LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU. LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...DS MARINE...GC/MPS HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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