Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 262247 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 647 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS SE COASTAL CT AND LI PER METMOS GUIDANCE AND HINTS OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE DATA/NARRE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME FOG IN TO THE FORECAST FOR OUTLYING/COASTAL AREAS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD 10Z THURSDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OFF SHORE. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY EXPANDS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH MAINTAINING A STRONGER RIDGE ON SUN WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON. THAT BEING THE CASE...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE TO A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME HUMID SUN INTO MON WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO MON. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTER 09Z. S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW. LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE 00Z TOMORROW. BETTER CHC AFTER 00Z THURS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WED THROUGH SUN... .WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA. .THU-SAT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WITH PCPN. && .MARINE... WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RATHER LIGHT FLOW. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS DUE TO LONG PERIOD S/SE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THU MORNING/AFT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO BELOW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU INTO FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL. && .HYDROLOGY... ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCT CONVECTION SUN INTO MON COULD PRODUCE MAINLY MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...GS/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...MET/DW HYDROLOGY...MET/DW

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