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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201256
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
856 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon
into the evening. High pressure then builds in through early
next week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday.
High pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Pre-frontal trough continues to work its way across the area
this morning. Showers accompanying the trough and lift aloft
from an approaching jet streak will translate eastward through
the rest of the morning. Most places along and west of the
Hudson River corridor will be dry with the bulk of the showers
occurring across Long Island and central/eastern CT.

Rainfall amounts will be light with potential of around a
quarter inch across eastern Long Island/southeast CT.

Otherwise, already seeing clearing occur to our west and expect
this drier air to work its way into the area late this morning
and early afternoon. Winds will shift to the W by afternoon
which will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s for much of
the area, with upper 60s to near 70 across portions of NE NJ.
Did bump up temperatures on Long Island as the flow should
mainly be W or just south of west with little influence from the
cooler ocean.

The main cold front moves across the area late this afternoon,
shifting the winds to the NW, ushering in a cooler and drier
airmass. Winds may briefly gust 25-35 mph, especially west of
the NYC metro. A few of the CAMs are also showing some isolated
showers with the frontal passage late in the day. Have added in
a slight chance of a shower across CT and eastern LI this
evening, but most places will be dry.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to push across the area early this evening.
Any leftover isolated showers, should quickly come to an end. Behind
the front, expect mostly clear skies with lows falling into the 30s
inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the
coast.

A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada
tonight into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over
the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to
develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave
swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle
and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies
and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Surface high pressure then builds into the region for Monday and
Monday night. Conditions will remain dry with highs on Monday in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday
night. Light winds and cold temperatures may result in some frosty
spots well north and west of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A more zonal mid-level flow takes hold of the region by Tuesday with
surface high pressure in place during the day. The next piece of
energy embedded in a trough over the Great Lakes approaches the area
on Wednesday. A low pressure system develops and passes north of the
area pushing a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. This brings the next chance for a round of rain for
the area. The surface low moves northeast of the area on Thursday
with high pressure building in from the west through the end of the
week making for a fairly tranquil period.

Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A surface trough is moving across the terminals this morning. A
cold front will move across the terminals this afternoon. High
pressure builds in tonight.

MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail across the terminals this morning
with rain showers. There remains a low chance that a few
terminals may briefly lower to LIFR before 14Z. Conditions
expected to improve quickly to VFR by mid-morning for the
western terminals and during the afternoon for the eastern
terminals.

Light S winds become SW this morning. WInds may briefly become
more W by mid morning behind the surface trough. Winds expected
to shift back to the SW before the passage of the cold front
during the afternoon where winds become more WNW with gusts
developing. There is a chance that gusts will be around 25-30kt
by late in the day with the cold frontal passage. Gusts diminish
into the first half of the overnight period.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible for timing of category changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly
NYC metros/coast.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in
the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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A cold front moves across the waters late today into this
evening. Winds may briefly gust close to 25 kt near the NY
Harbor and western Sound with the passage of the front, but it
is not expected to last for many hours. No SCA has been issued.
High pressure will otherwise build tonight through Sunday.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels given a
relatively weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through
at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on
Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to
approach.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW