Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261441 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS NOW BURNED OFF AND THE AREA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU BUILDING. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS FOR THIS. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. AS LAND TEMPERATURES INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. FOR INLAND AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 90. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT FORM. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S. SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING. HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES. GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 06Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG S/SE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 17-20Z. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 19Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...VFR. .WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA. .THU-SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/LN NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...LN AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

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