Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART ON THU. HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE. TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY THU. GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE. MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT 1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MPS NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...24/MPS

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