Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 082330 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 630 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER AND UP TO 4 TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 EWR 0/1979 5 BDR *3/2015 5 NYC 2/1916 7 LGA 1/1979 8 JFK 4/1979 6 ISP *7/2015 4 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CITY TERMINALS 00Z TO 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN RESPONSE TO THIS. GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE OCEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. OTHERWISE...NON OCEAN WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA. THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI. THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES. HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 178-179. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178- 179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074- 080. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ074. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006- 106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC/MET SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...DS MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.