Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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731 FXUS61 KOKX 230258 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 958 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through Friday. After a cold frontal passage this weekend, high pressure will build into the region next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast mainly on track. Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage. Stratocumulus still lingering across the northern tier of the forecast region in the northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern Connecticut. A steep pressure gradient from a deepening low moving into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to the southwest of the region will keep gusty northwest flow through this evening. This will usher in a noticeably colder airmass for tonight into the day Thursday. Under clearing skies, overnight lows will fall to around freezing in the city and into the low to mid 20s across typically cooler outlying areas. While gusts will diminish after midnight as high pressure begins to build in from the west, loosening the pressure gradient, there should be just enough wind overnight to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As high pressure continues to build into the region, Thanksgiving Day will feature plenty of sunshine, but cool temperatures. Highs will rise into the low to mid 40s, about 5-10 degrees below normal. A weak shortwave will cross the region Thursday night, with the only impact to sensible weather being a brief increase in cloud cover overnight. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, ranging from the mid 20s in outlying areas to the mid 30s in and around New York City. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build offshore Friday, resulting in return southwesterly flow. This will allow temperatures to rebound to near 50. A lack of moisture looks to produce a sunny day as well. Clouds increase on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. There does remain some uncertainty for the day. The NAM indicates a rainy day with low pressure close to the coast. All of the other data keeps this storm way offshore. The incoming 15Z SREF data brings the probability of rain to around 15-25%. Chances in the official forecast have been limited to slight. The cold front comes through Saturday night. This could squeeze out a few sprinkles or a period of very light rain. Slight chances continue for this then the area is dried out overnight. Cooler weather on Sunday and dry. Breezy with northwest winds gusting to perhaps 30 mph or so per the time heights. A shot of rain is again possible Wednesday with a cold frontal passage, otherwise fair weather is expected at this time with a lack of moisture advection into the region. The superblend was generally used for temperatures. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west tonight and Thursday. VFR forecast for the TAF period as clouds eventually diminish tonight. Winds out of the NW near 10-15 KT remain gusty with gusts near 20-25 KT but these are starting to drop off for some locations and become less frequent. Gusts further diminish overnight with NW sustained winds dropping to near 10 KT or less. The winds become more westerly Thursday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday night...VFR. W winds Thursday night back to the SW Friday. SW winds G15-20KT forecast Friday night, mainly at eastern terminals. .Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR possible in rain, mainly for the daytime Saturday. W-NW winds G15-20KT forecast. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT forecast. .Monday...VFR. Winds back to more westerly and decrease. Gusts 15-20KT possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Ocean seas this evening are still 4-5 ft and wind gusts are near 25-30KT for much of the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all ocean waters through tonight as winds gust to 25-30KT in the wake of a cold front. Gusts will begin to subside overnight for non-ocean waters with winds expected to lower below SCA criteria as high pressure builds into the region. However, seas are expected to remain elevated on the ocean at least through the day on Thursday. With this in mind, the SCA was extended on the ocean through the day on Thursday. 5 ft waves may linger into Thursday night before diminishing. Winds and seas could creep up to close to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday and Friday night on the eastern ocean, otherwise conditions will remain below criteria elsewhere. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the ocean again on Saturday. All areas will likely see winds hit 25 kt Saturday night and Sunday behind a cold front, with improvement then on Monday. Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels on Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/JMC NEAR TERM...FEB/JM SHORT TERM...FEB LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM MARINE...FEB/JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...FEB/JMC

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