Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 132017 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 417 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TEMPS HAVE TORCHED OUT THIS AFTN WITH KLDJ UP TO 85. KEWR SO FAR 3 OFF FROM THE RECORD OF 86. ALL THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY. STRATUS HOWEVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TNGT OVER THE OCEAN AND ADVECT INTO MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THE SLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HVY FOG...HOWEVER CSTL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OCEAN. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND MON...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ZONES IN THE AFTN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THRU MON...HOWEVER AREAS OF DZ WILL BE CAPABLE OF WETTING THE SFC. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WRT THIS DZ DEVELOPMENT...AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL HAS HANDLED THE LLVL MOISTURE BETTER THAN THE GFS THUS FAR WITH THIS PATTERN. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD A BLEND OF THE MET/NAM/MAV. A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 FAR E AND IN THE 70S W. TEMPS IN THE W COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FCST IF THERE IS ENOUGH AFTN CLEARING FOR DEEPER MIXING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL MON NGT...AND THE LLJ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT PER THE NAM AND GFS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA...SOME SCT-ISOLD SHRA COULD BE TRIGGERED. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 60 BUT INCLUDED COVERAGE WORDING. FOG AND PERHAPS DZ WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND...WITH SKIES MAINLY OVC WITH THE MOIST MARINE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE 50S DUE TO THE BUILDING LLVL MOISTURE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON TUE..AND MOVING ACROSS TUE EVENING. DEEP LAYER S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD TAP NICELY INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ POKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND INTO TUE EVENING WITH FROPA. RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED IN/NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND VIA OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ADVECTION FOG EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES AS THE MOIST AIR MASS TRAVERSES THE COLD ATLANTIC WATERS OVER A LONG FETCH. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...AND WITH THE LLJ INCREASING TO 65-70 KT PER 12Z NAM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40-45 KT. GIVEN THE STRONG LL INVERSION IN PLACE THESE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS IN HEAVY RAIN AND WOULD BE HANDLED VIA SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL COME JUST AFTER THE COLD FROPA TUE NIGHT AS COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AND LOW LEVELS BECOME UNSTABLE...WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD AIR COULD ALSO BRING A BRIEF MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TUE NIGHT...EVEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH/EAST TO GO MORE CONFIDENTLY WITH A DRY FCST FOR WED-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS/RETREATS EWD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PHASING WITH A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH...WITH PRIMARY INLAND LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS AFTER COLD FROPA SHOULD BE BELOW AVG WED-THU...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND TO LOWER 50S. THU COULD BE ESPECIALLY RAW OVER ERN LONG ISLAND VIA A PERSISTENT ENE MARITIME FLOW...WITH HIGHS ONLY ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. SOME MODERATION MAY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS THIS EVENING...WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS KJFK/KISP/KGON THE MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO OBSERVE THESE LOWER CLOUDS. SO...VFR COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR IN STRATUS. FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD VSBYS IFR OR LOWER. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH 23-01Z ALL AIRPORTS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR. S WINDS 15-25KT. .MON NIGHT...BECOMING SUB VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY NW-N WINDS AFTER COLD FROPA TUE NIGHT. .WED-FRI...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS ARE RUNNING BLW WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD THRU TNGT. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED/EXTENDED FROM TNGT THRU MON NGT. ELSEWHERE...SLY WINDS WILL REACH SCA LVLS ON MON INTO MON EVE...AND AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AS WELL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TIMES THRU MON NGT. STRONG SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE VIA PERSISTENT/INCREASING S FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO TUE EVENING...WITH ADVECTION FOG LIKELY LIMITING VSBY TO 1 NM OR LESS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. POST-FRONTAL NW GALES ARE HOWEVER MORE LIKELY AFTER FROPA TUE NIGHT. SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS WED MORNING SHOULD RAMP DOWN ON THE PROTECTED WATERS...BUT AN EXTENDED PD OF HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE INTO FRI VIA COMBO OF LEFTOVER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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QPF OF 1 TO 1.75 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WETTER GUIDANCE STILL SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMTS OF OVER 2 INCHES. MOST FLOODING WILL MOSTLY BE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

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