Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291855 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 255 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANY COVERAGE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV GUIDANCE. FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS EVENING. VFR. SCT SHOWERS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY MVFR CONDS WITH THOSE SHOWERS UPSTREAM BUT WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT THIS EVENING. ESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 15-20 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE GUSTS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FCST INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL WINDS START TO BACK NE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 00Z-01Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 070-110 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 080-140 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 00Z-01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SAT-SAT EVENING...VFR. .LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. .TUE...VFR. .WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. && .MARINE... HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN ON WED. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...JMC/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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