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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160551
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
151 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Following a weak cold frontal passage, high pressure will build
in from the northwest through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm
front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold
front on Saturday. The front remains not too far offshore on
Sunday as high pressure tries to build in, then high pressure
strengthens more on Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Spotty showers continue across SE CT and this should come to an
end over the next hour. This appears to be associated with jet
energy rounding the base of the amplifying upper trough across
the Northeast.

Otherwise, cold front south of the area will continue to work
south, while high pressure ridging across the Great Lakes begins
to build in from the west.

Stayed with the latest forecast for lows, but this will be
critical on how much winds lighten and the airmass radiates.
Lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees above normal,
perhaps higher.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday
night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and
lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers
mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting
late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of
the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and
deterministic models are still showing a weak low center
developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid
level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain
south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers
likely for most of the area through Thursday.

The low to the south doesn`t move much during Friday with an
inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same
time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of
the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon
shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.

There`s some question regarding how far south the departing
cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this
period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when
highs will be only the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the terminals tonight into Tuesday
night.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds generally will be N to NW at 5 to 10 kt overnight. The
winds become more NW into the morning and remain NW through
Tuesday with speeds closer to 10 kt, and gusts around 15-20 kt
by late morning until early evening. A coastal sea breeze will
be possible later in the day, though there still remains
uncertainty with this. Added TEMPO for wind shifts more to the
SW at KJFK, KISP, and KGON. The winds lighten and remain mainly
N to NNE Tuesday evening, becoming light and variable for
outlying terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts
on Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S-SW sea breeze possible on Tuesday for KJFK, timing
may be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence
below average.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
The small craft advisory on the eastern ocean has been allowed
to expire as seas generally get below 5 ft. Going forward winds
and seas will remain below advisory levels through Wednesday.
Winds increase Wednesday night as the pressure gradient tightens
in response to a broad area of low pressure approaching. SCA
conds become likely on the ocean by the end of the night, and
possibly on some of the other waters as well. Winds increase
further during Thursday as a low center develops to the south.
Once again, advisory conditions still likely on the ocean and
potentially for other spots. Winds diminish Thursday night into
Friday, however a lingering swell with on onshore flow may keep
ocean seas above 5 ft through at least Friday morning. Sub-
advisory conditions on all waters otherwise Friday afternoon
through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The weather is dry overnight through Tuesday night. A half inch
to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected
with this event.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...JP