Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271721 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 121 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITED TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. TSTMS PROBABLY NOT SEVERE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. 850MB TEMPS OF 17C...A MODERATE W TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HINDERING SEA BREEZES TO A DEGREE...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS OVER PARTS OF NE NJ/CITY/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH CAPE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY DROPS OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH STABILIZATION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A SUNNY SKY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS AND LESS OF A SPREAD AMONG HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. A BLEND OF NAM/MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTENS TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH A BIT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FRI INTO SAT. MODELS STILL WITH A BIT OF TIMING/INTERACTION ISSUES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FOR SUN INTO MON...BUT OVERALL THEME IS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN...WHICH GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AND INCREASING WARMTH AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS ACROSS NYC AND POINTS TO THE W/NW SUN AFT INTO EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS LIKELY SUN INTO MON IN DEEP S/SW FLOW...WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON... .THU-SAT...VFR. .SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. && .MARINE... SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM 2 PM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI AND THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA SEAS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SUN INTO MON. SCT CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVY THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF THE 7 FT CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY EVE...IN THIS CASE THE ADVY INCLUDES THE DANGEROUS RIP THREAT AS WELL...WHICH IS WHY THE PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THIS AFTERNOON. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC

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