Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261739 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1239 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY...THEN SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY...THEN COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT MILD EARLY WINTER DAY EXPECTED TODAY. BROAD RIDGING BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST...A LIGHT W FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 4C SHOULD YIELD SFC HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE AVG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH ITS RESIDUAL ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND GREAT LAKES ON SAT BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEMS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTN/EVE WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FROPA AND KEEPS ALL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE S. THE 00Z EC IS WETTER THAN THE 12Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS. ONE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLNS HOWEVER IS THE TIMING OF THE WAVE PASSING TO THE S. GFS IS SUN NIGHT AND EC IS MON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE RECTIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT DUE TO THE OVERALL WETTER TREND...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER TO MID 50S SAT AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUN. LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE FLATTENS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARDS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE NEXT WEEK IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. LIKEWISE...A VERY COLD SOURCE OF AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THIS AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY INTO POSSIBLY MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR IN PLACE HERE BUT AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE PCPN WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT AGAIN WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT AMOUNTS...NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVERALL A COLDER TREND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. WNW SFC WINDS LIGHTEN THIS AFTN AS THEY BACKS TO THE W. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z. NO GUSTS THIS AFTN. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...VFR...LOCALIZED MVFR INLAND. CHC -SHRA. .MON-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SUNDAY WHEN 5 FT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN SE OF MONTAUK POINT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW TREND WITH THE RESPONSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...

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