Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 311123 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 723 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE AND WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE. DESPITE A NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECTING A QUICK DIURNAL WARMING WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST HALF...THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTS AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL TO START BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS FACTOR WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS FORECAST WILL BE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CONNECTICUT COAST. FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WITH THE MARITIME INFLUENCE. STILL IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF NYC AND URBAN NEW JERSEY. IN ADDITION...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITHOUT MUCH COHERENCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TIME BEING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH ON WED AND LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THE ONSET...TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPS RETURN TO NEARLY SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED E OF THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHY MVFR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KGON...WITH VFR ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TRICKY BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ADD IT TO KJFK A FEW HOURS LATER THAN NORMAL. SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWEST 4K FT WILL BE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTN THEN WEAKEN DURING THE EVE. ALSO KEPT IT IN AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY AT KGON FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE ALSO BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE (AFT 22Z). KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EQUAL CHANCES OF WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE LEFT OF 310 COULD BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS BACKING TO THE W COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFT 20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .SAT-SUN...VFR. .MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. .TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. && .MARINE... PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH THE DIURNAL WARMING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO WARRANT ANY ISSUANCE OF SCA AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...24 MARINE...JM/DW HYDROLOGY...JM/DW

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