Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181033 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 533 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW. POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY 12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E. CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE. SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE. WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT. ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TODAY. WIND DIRECTION AROUND 300 MAGNETIC TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT GUSTS 25-30 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRI THROUGH SAT... .LATE TONIGHT...VFR. .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL PTYPE...BRIEF ONSET AS SNOW POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SLOWER TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF. .SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGHOUT. .MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI. SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST. MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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