Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010541 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE. SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT. .THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N. .SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S. OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. && .HYDROLOGY... POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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