Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281723 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1223 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST...AND SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 30S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER IF EXPOSED...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH FLAT NW TO SE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS...NW WINDS LIGHTEN. AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...MUCH DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COLDER 00Z MAV/ECS WARMER 00Z MET MINS. EITHER WAY...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND TEENS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SAT. EXPECT ONE MORE COLD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S...AS CLOUDS PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. WAA ON INCREASING S WINDS WILL LEAD TO STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX OF FROZEN PCPN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE THERMO PROFILES WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF INTEREST. THE LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO AS IT PRECEDED BY A TRANSIENT 1040-1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING TUE FOLLOWING THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...AROUND 320 MAGNETIC...SO FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AT TIMES COULD GO SOUTH OF 310. GUSTS END 22-00Z.. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SAT-SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...VFR. .WED...CHC MVFR/IFR AND -RA.
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&& .MARINE... NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS AS CAA CONTINUES. THESE MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING ON THE OCEAN...SO SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THERE. SEAS ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...AROUND 5 FT...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO MON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...PW

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