Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010021 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 821 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS...SHOULD LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...WILL WORK ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY TERMINALS WED MORN INTO AFTERNOON. NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 LATER WED MORN INTO WED AFT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA AFTR 06Z. IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. .THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT. .SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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