Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 272320 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 720 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST ON TRACK...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT EXISTING STRATO-CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. AS A RESULT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHADED LOWS TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE...AND UNDER CUT SLIGHTLY IN RURAL AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...THEN BEGINS TO CONNECT WITH WNW-NW EXTENSION OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A COMPOSITE OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...SO ONCE AGAIN SHADED TOWARDS COOLER OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...AND UNDER CUT IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. OVER URBAN AREAS AGAIN USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BECOMES ENTRENCHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. WITH A PERSISTENT S- SW FLOW...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT BY TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. WEAKENING H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY...AND THEN WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. CAPE VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO THE WARM AIR AND HUMIDITY... AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS IF THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND...5 KT TO 8 KT PREVAILS TONIGHT. THE WIND BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 18Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZING MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL...AND MAY BE JUST AFTER 22Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH. IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP WILL BE 21Z TO 22Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10-15 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT SEAS TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN AND WAVES/SEAS AT 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS NEAR TERM...MALOIT/NV SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET MARINE...MALOIT/MPS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.