Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 120512 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 112 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL WEAK LOWS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MARINE STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NYC INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND STARTING TO SCATTER. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WITH DEWPOINTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO FORM OUTSIDE OF NYC OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK AS TEMPS COOL AND SURFACE RH RISES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION WITH THIS...WITH 3SM IN GRIDS FOR THE PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S ALONG MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 60S IN NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT YET TRANSPORT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MAV/MET MOS WERE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN MOST LOCATIONS SO SAW NO REASON TO TAKE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A MODEL BLEND. THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH A CONTINUING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK LOWS MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH SAT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND SLY FLOW OF 10 KT OR LESS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS. LATEST SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NY HARBOR AND JAMAICA BAY. KJFK AT 02Z REPORTING A FEW008. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT THE NYC TERMINALS FROM 07Z TO 11Z. THIS MAY OCCUR EVEN SOONER. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS. STRONGER TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON SUNDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON WED. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM

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