Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 4...

THIS IS THE FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A
SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING
(NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM FEBRUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 26TH THROUGH
MARCH 4TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NYC
...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE
STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND
BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY                    NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
NEWARK BAY                        NO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGE                NO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE          80%  COVERAGE 4-6"  THICKNESS
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT          10%  COVERAGE 6-8"  THICKNESS
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH            100% COVERAGE 6-14" THICKNESS
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE          100% COVERAGE 6-8" THICKNESS

SNOW - SNOW DEPTH WAS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA. SINCE FEBRUARY 19TH ACROSS NEW YORK CITY SNOW DEPTH RANGED
BETWEEN 2 TO 9 INCHES...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW RANGED
BETWEEN 5 TO 11 INCHES...ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SNOW
DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 10 TO 17 INCHES...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO
3 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 11 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH A FEW STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE..ON THURSDAY MARCH 5TH, 2015.


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