Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6...

THIS IS THE SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A
SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING
(NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE
SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 24TH THROUGH MARCH 28TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 26TH THROUGH
APRIL 1ST SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ARE BELOW NORMAL...WHILE ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES ARE NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE
STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE
NEWARK BAYNO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGENO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 20% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT20% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH          40% COVERAGE 2-6" THICKNESS
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE        40% COVERAGE 3-6" THICKNESS

SNOW - AS OF MARCH 19TH...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW ON THE
GROUND ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THERE COULD BE A TRACE
TO AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - NONE. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT
RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 20 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE AROUND
10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT MIGHT
IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE...ON THURSDAY APRIL 2ND, 2015.

$$



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