Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 141103 ESFOKX WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 700 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... This is the sixth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series of routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks. This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of any future river flooding. The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from March 19th through the 23rd suggests near normal to below normal Temperatures and near normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from March 21st through the 27th suggests above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area. Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding potential is considered low or below normal. Current flooding - None. Precipitation - Precipitation departures from normal across the Hydrologic Service Area for the last 60 days were anywhere between 1 to 4 inches above normal across the entire Hydrologic Service Area. Snow Conditions – Below normal. There is currently no snow on the ground across the Hydrologic Service Area. River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water. Soil moisture – Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data and charts can be seen at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov /products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif and www.drought.gov. Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City water supply system were 8 percent above normal. Reservoir levels across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs were 11 percent above normal. Summary - During the two-week outlook period ending on March 28th expect temperatures to start out normal to below normal during the first week of this outlook then to above normal during the second week of this outlook period. Precipitation will start out near normal for this time of year then to above normal toward the end of March across the Hydrologic Service Area. Flood potential outlook for the next two weeks ending on March 28th will be normal to above normal. For more information on the threat for river flooding please visit: www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs For complete weather information, visit our web site at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY The next Winter Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by this office in two weeks, on March 28th, 2024.

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