Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 161506 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079- 081-085-087-103-119-302000- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1105 AM EDT THU MAR 16 2017 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 23RD THROUGH THE 29TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE NEW YORK CITY 5 BOROUGHS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND HAVE BEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 6 TO 16 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT SNOW DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 24 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. ACROSS NEW YORK CITY METRO...SOUTH SHORE CONNECTICUT COAST AND NASSAU COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES. ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WAS BETWEEN A TRACE TO AN INCH WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 7 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 30TH, 2017. $$

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