Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 191429 RRA ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-021500- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1028 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6... THIS IS THE SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 24TH THROUGH MARCH 28TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 26TH THROUGH APRIL 1ST SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE BELOW NORMAL...WHILE ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER... SANDY HOOK BAY NO ICE LOWER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE UPPER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE NEWARK BAYNO ICE THROGS NECK BRIDGENO ICE GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 20% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT20% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH 40% COVERAGE 2-6" THICKNESS NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE 40% COVERAGE 3-6" THICKNESS SNOW - AS OF MARCH 19TH...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THERE COULD BE A TRACE TO AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - NONE. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 20 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...ON THURSDAY APRIL 2ND, 2015. $$

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