Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 171234 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-011245- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 834 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 8... THIS IS THE EIGHT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM APRIL 22ND THROUGH APRIL 26TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 24TH THROUGH APRIL 30TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN 1 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SNOW - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV. SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 4 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY EXTENDED WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS...ON MAY 1ST, 2014. $$

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