Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 161608 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-181615- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 8... THIS IS THE EIGHT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM APRIL 21ST THROUGH APRIL 25TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 23RD THROUGH APRIL 29TH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE TWO TO THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE FIRST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WILL BE AROUND APRIL 20TH AND 21ST. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT AND LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...ON THURSDAY APRIL 30TH, 2015. $$

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