Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 221451 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-051500- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 951 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2... THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JANUARY 27TH THROUGH THE 31ST SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NYC ...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE...ESPECIALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER... SANDY HOOK BAY NO ICE LOWER NEW YORK BAY NO ICE UPPER NEW YORK BAY NO ICE NEWARK BAY NO ICE THROGS NECK BRIDGE NO ICE GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE NO ICE TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT NO ICE WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH 30% COVERAGE 2" THICKNESS NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE 80% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS SNOW - SNOW DEPTH SINCE JANUARY 22ND WAS ZERO TO A TRACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THIS WAS AROUND NORMAL. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV. SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD... THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A FEW COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE..ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 5TH, 2015. $$

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