Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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614 FGUS71 KOKX 161935 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079- 081-085-087-103-119-022000- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 232 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 23RD THROUGH MARCH 1ST SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT CONTINUED TO PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE AROUND 11 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 2ND, 2017. $$

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