Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FGUS71 KOKX 151007 ESFOKX CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071- 079-081-085-087-103-119-151115- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 607 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM APRIL 19TH THROUGH THE 23RD SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 21ST THROUGH THE 27TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. PRECIPITATION - FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER. SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE TWO PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NORMAL. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF. THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED BY NWS NEW YORK NY FOR THE SEASON. $$

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