Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3

000
FGUS71 KOKX 021507
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-161515-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM APRIL 7TH THROUGH APRIL 11TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 9TH THROUGH
APRIL 15TH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE
ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE
NO LONGER AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAYNO ICE
NEWARK BAYNO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGENO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE        NO ICE
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT        NO ICE
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH          NO ICE

SNOW - THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - NONE. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT
RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 20 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH A FEW STORMS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...ON
THURSDAY APRIL 16TH, 2015.

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.