Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 061458
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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-201500-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014


...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 5...

THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A
SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING
(NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 11TH THROUGH MARCH 15TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 13TH THROUGH
MARCH 19TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY                    NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
NEWARK BAY                        NO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGE                NO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE      20% COVERAGE 1 - 2"
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT      75% COVERAGE 3 - 6"
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH        90% COVERAGE 4 - 8"
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE      90% COVERAGE 3 - 8"

SNOW - CURRENTLY WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...SNOW DEPTHS
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3 TO 11 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO AN INCH ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE
FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 2 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
20 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS...ON MARCH 20, 2014.


$$






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