Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 071729
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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-211700-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 PM EDT THU JAN 7 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 1...

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
JANUARY 12TH THROUGH JANUARY 16TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 14TH THROUGH JANUARY 20TH SUGGESTS
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE SLIGHTLY NORMAL TO ONE INCH BELOW
NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT
RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 1 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR
3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. DUE TO THE WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO RIVER ICE ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 9TH AND 10TH.
PRECIPITATION VALUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE...ON THURSDAY JANUARY 21ST, 2016.

$$



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