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000
FXUS66 KOTX 160533
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1033 PM PDT Wed May 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A spring time progressive weather pattern will continue through
the next week featuring seasonably cool conditions and occasional
weak storm systems bearing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. A stronger storm with a cooling trend is possible by
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery as of 930 PM indicated a well defined
wave over NW Washington with a small circulation noted. Models
show this feature tracking east tonight with the bulk of the
energy tracking over locations north of the Columbia Basin
including the East Slopes of the Cascades, Okanogan Valley,
Okanogan Highlands, Northeast Washington Mountains, and the North
Idaho Panhandle. Initially there is some dry air below 800mb that
will need to moisten up. But with time...showers will be on the
increase tonight in the aforementioned areas. Elsewhere showers
will be more isolated in nature. Cloud cover will hold
temperatures up tonight around Omak, Winthrop, and Wenatchee and
lows were increased slightly.

On Thursday...a weak trough will remain over the region...which
combined with afternoon heating will trigger showers over the
region. The bulk of these will be over the mountains with no
strong forcing to initiate convection in the Columbia Basin and
adjacent valleys. Models show marginal instability for
thunderstorms...so a slight chance was maintained for the
mountains...but removed in the valleys.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather system tonight will spread thickening mid
level cloud cover across the region. Very light rain showers or
sprinkles will be possible at the taf sites with this system as cigs
decrease to around 5 kft agl. Cigs are not expected to get much
lower than this level with VFR conditions expected through Thursday
evening.  The atmosphere will destabilize Thursday afternoon with
isolated thunderstorms possible over the mountains.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  65  47  69  48  68 /  30  40  20  10  20  40
Coeur d`Alene  45  63  44  67  46  67 /  30  50  20  20  20  40
Pullman        44  64  44  66  46  64 /  20  30  10  10  20  30
Lewiston       49  72  50  74  52  72 /  10  30  10  10  20  20
Colville       45  70  42  75  46  73 /  50  50  30  20  30  50
Sandpoint      45  63  41  67  44  68 /  40  50  20  20  30  40
Kellogg        44  60  45  64  47  63 /  30  50  20  20  30  40
Moses Lake     47  74  48  77  51  75 /  10  20  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      49  72  49  73  52  71 /  20  20  10  10  10  20
Omak           49  72  44  75  47  74 /  40  40  20  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$