000
FXUS66 KOTX 242338
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
438 PM PDT Fri May 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery weather will continue through Saturday, then a
subtle warming and drying trend is anticipated by Monday as the
upper-level low moves out of the area. The break will be
short lived as another cool, showery pattern returns around the
middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday: Lots going on this afternoon. Mostly clear
skies this morning across northern WA and ID have given way to
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low is
currently just south of Moses Lake. It brought a band of wrap around
showers to central WA earlier this morning and it has finally
stretched and sheared apart as it trucked north towards Spokane.
Behind this thicker band of clouds from the wrap around precip,
cumulus clouds and subsequent showers have developed. Basically,
there is a chance of showers just about everywhere late this
afternoon and early this evening. You yourself may not get rained
on, but if you were to look out you would see showers all around
you. Isolated thunderstorms have developed in association with the
showers with a chance of them just about everywhere, exactly like
the showers. Models are showing showers and thunderstorms
decreasing through the evening hours as the low shifts northeast
into northwest Montana. Another low is developing off the
northwest WA coast and will shift into WA Saturday. Showers are
expected to develop again by afternoon...this time mainly north of
Highway 2. Temperatures tonight and Sat will be predominately
below average for this time of the year. Temperatures will be
above freezing though tonight. The exception to this will be
across the mountains in the north. /Nisbet

Saturday night through Monday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue through the weekend...however the models are still having
trouble fine tuning the small scale features. The upper level low
will remain over the Pacific Northwest and B.C. through
Monday...with a reinforcing secondary low dumb belling around the
main low Saturday night and Sunday...and a much stronger trough
coming off the Pacific Monday night and Tuesday. A new surge of
moisture will be associated with each of these waves...but mostly
around the periphery of the wave. With the cold core right over
the forecast area there will be a chance of light showers just
about anywhere...but I tried to time the best chances of
precipitation with each incoming wave. Lingering showers will be
possible Saturday night across the northern zones. The focus then
shifts to the southeast and eastern zones for Sunday afternoon and
again Monday afternoon where the models are showing the best
instability and forcing. There may be a chance for isolated
lightning strikes with the wave on Sunday in the vicinity of the
Blues and the Camas Prairie. Temperatures will remain on the cool
side of normal. /Tobin


Monday night through Friday...Somewhat cool and unsettled conditions
will prevail throughout the extended forecast period while the
region remains under an upper level trough. Model consensus is fair
with latest run of the GFS/DGEX/GEM showing similar solutions but
the 12Z ECMWF takes the upper low on a different course of evolution.
Rather than the agreed on solution of a negatively tilted trough
extending NW to SE over the forecast area, the EC splits the flow
and drops a closed low into the Great Basin. This would lower the
chance of precipitation over our northeast zones, which is precisely
where the other models bring the focus for higher PoPs. I trended
the northeast down slightly, but for the most part, Pops remain
above climo, with temperatures on the cool side of normal. I did
introduce a slight chance of thunder for portions of the Idaho zones
on Tuesday as the trough axis moves inland. Any significant changes
will wait for better consensus. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Energy moving around a low pressure center will allow
scattered showers to continue this evening, with a chance of
thunderstorms. Expect primarily VFR conditions but local MVFR or
IFR cigs are possible with passing showers. The threat of showers
will wane after dark. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop again Saturday afternoon but confidence in location
of showers is too low to put in TAFs. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  63  44  65  46  68 /  40  20  10  20  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  42  63  42  65  43  67 /  50  20  20  30  10  40
Pullman        38  64  43  63  43  67 /  20  10  10  30  30  20
Lewiston       43  71  48  70  49  74 /  20  10  10  30  40  20
Colville       40  67  41  72  43  72 /  60  40  30  20  10  40
Sandpoint      41  63  39  66  41  66 /  60  30  20  20  10  40
Kellogg        41  61  44  63  45  65 /  60  40  20  30  20  40
Moses Lake     45  72  46  73  48  74 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      48  68  47  70  50  71 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           40  68  41  71  44  72 /  40  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$