000
FXUS66 KOTX 190524
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1024 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of moderate rain will develop over the Idaho Panhandle and
extreme eastern Washington and continue on Wednesday. More rain is
expected on Thursday, mainly across the northern and eastern
mountains. The rain will gradually subside on Friday with a drying and
warming trend expected this weekend. Wetter and cooler weather
will return early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar is starting to show the north-south orientation to the
precip, with a band extending along the Oregon/Idaho border north
of Ontario up to Lewiston. 04Z RAP run has this fairly well depicted,
along with the small area of rain south of Spokane. The RAP
expects this area of rain to fall apart, which agrees with latest
radar trends. Then the north-south band of rain should move into
the southern panhandle and reach the BC border by about sunrise
Wednesday. Models continue to show a done-deal for moderate rain
in the panhandle including Coeur d`Alene, but more iffy to the
west (e.g. Spokane airport).

I have backed off a smidge on the rainfall amounts a bit from the
previous forecast as the new GFS agrees somewhat with the new NAM.
I also removed any mention of thunder from Wednesday`s forecast.
While there is an outside chance of a strike or 2 away from the
main band of rain, it`s just not worth keeping in the forecast, as
models don`t show any surface-based instability due to the
extensive cloud cover and the cold pool staying to our south.  RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of moderate rain will develop over the Idaho
Panhandle tonight and persist through much of Wednesday. This will
bring MVFR/IFR conditions to most of the TAFs (aside from KEAT and
KMWH). KCOE will likely be IFR all day long. KSFF will also see
some near-IFR conditions. Tougher call at KGEG which will be on
the western edge of the rain band. KPUW will likely have an IFR
cig in the morning but improve a bit in the afternoon.

To the west, KMWH and KEAT will just have VFR clouds. Gusty west
winds will develop in the late afternoon at KEAT in response to a
strong pressure gradient. RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  54  45  55  44  61 / 100 100  80  80  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  54  46  54  42  60 / 100 100 100  90  50  60
Pullman        49  53  44  56  42  60 / 100 100  70  60  30  60
Lewiston       56  58  49  64  44  67 / 100 100  70  60  20  50
Colville       54  63  50  57  48  67 /  60 100 100 100  60  50
Sandpoint      54  56  46  53  45  60 / 100 100 100 100  60  60
Kellogg        50  51  44  51  39  57 / 100 100 100 100  50  60
Moses Lake     54  66  51  65  49  69 /  20  40  50  60  30  30
Wenatchee      52  66  52  64  51  68 /  30  40  50  60  40  30
Omak           54  66  51  64  50  69 /  20  70  70  80  60  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$