Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291752
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FINISHED ITS PASS THROUGH OKLHOMA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT DRIER...AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF OKLAHOMA TODAY...ALONG WITH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE WINDS/TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT OUR RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A FEW ELEVATED ECHOES CONTINUE ON RADAR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. NONE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND. SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUPPORT A MINIMAL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...BELOW
15 PERCENT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
29/12Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MID MORNING
AND WILL APPROACH OKC AROUND 18Z. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW
20 PERCENT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER STORM CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  72  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
HOBART OK         47  73  53  80 /   0   0   0  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  75  56  80 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           41  76  47  82 /   0   0   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     43  73  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         55  72  58  74 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

&&

$$

23/09/09


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