Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 291634
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY
TO THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR, LATEST HRR AND SHORT RANGE RAP & NAM MODELS ALL
LIFT THE WARM FRONT AS FAR NORTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BEFORE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC
FORCING IS IN PLACE, WITH A TONGUE OF MU CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG AND HIGHER THAN MARGINAL LOW AND HIGH BASED SHEAR VALUES, IN
A NEARLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXIST FOR
SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOS ALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE BIGGEST RISK AREA RIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NOW
EXTENDS FROM I-40 TO SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SLIGHT RISK TO
THE NORTH. OUN WILL BE MAKING A 19Z SPECIAL BALLO0N SOUNDING FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER
MAINLY TWO PARTS OF THE CWA - SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN AREA OF
ENHANCED ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS LEAD S/WV PUSHES OUT OF NORTHEAST NM. IN
BETWEEN...EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND CAM MODELS WITH REGARDS TO MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
BECOME CONVECTION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO
INCREASES THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METRO...DOWN TOWARD WICHITA FALLS AND AREAS EAST THROUGH
ARDMORE...ADA...AND DURANT. SUITE OF WRF CAMS SURGE THE DRYLINE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTING WELL EAST
OF INTERSTATE-35. THIS FORECAST APPEAR TOO FAR EAST WITH
INITIATION AND PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO HRRR/RAP DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS THIS MORNING...THIS TREND COULD CHANGE BUT POPS
WERE CONFIGURED CLOSER TO THIS LATTER SCENARIO. GIVEN PROGD
LOCATION OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT...THIS WOULD YIELD
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
GREATER TORNADO PROBS VIA SPC. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION PROGD FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD DISRUPT/PREVENT SUSTAINED CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FAST MOVING SYSTEM STILL PROGD TO BRING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS PARTICULAR EPISODE IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  51  73  47 /  60  30  10   0
HOBART OK         75  46  72  45 /  40  30   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  51  76  49 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           62  41  67  41 /  70  30   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  50  72  45 /  60  80  10   0
DURANT OK         77  61  79  54 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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