Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 240452 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
24/06Z TAFs. Post-frontal MVFR cigs will occur across at least
northern and central portions of Oklahoma first several hours of
forecast. Lower confidence across southwest Oklahoma and around
KSPS. MVFR cigs will likely linger across KPNC well past daybreak.
Gusty northwest-north winds will be expected through 22-24Z then
veering and weakening as low level ridge settles over region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
24/00Z TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail most terminals through
period. Post-frontal MVFR cigs appear likely across northern
Oklahoma, which may linger much of tomorrow at KPNC. With this
issuance, will speed up southward progression of cold front which
should clear all terminals by midnight with gusty northwest winds
continuing through end of forecast period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Fire weather concerns continue to be the dominant issue with
strong winds and low humidity across the area as well as the
near-record high temperatures. A cold front will move through the
area tonight and much cooler (well, I guess I should say near-
normal) temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Despite the cooler
temperatures, we still can see some gusty northwest/north winds
and some low humidity again. The seasonable weather will continue
through the weekend. An approaching wave brings some chances of
precipitation Sunday and Sunday night, especially east, although
it is not expected to be very widespread precipitation.
The main uncertainty in the forecast are in the high temperatures
next week. The medium range models are in strong disagreement
about how much and how quickly warm air returns next week with
ECMWF showing 925 mb temperatures 12 to 15 degrees warmer than the
GFS on Monday and at least 5 degrees warmer on Tuesday. At the
moment have leaned toward a warmer solution of the ECMWF and
previous forecasts, but will watch trends.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 36 53 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 37 55 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 42 60 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 30 48 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 34 49 24 48 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 48 64 33 53 / 0 0 0 0