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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171631 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING AND A LAYER OF
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS OUT WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SQUALL
LINE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT S/SE
THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION...A SHIELD OF
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO PERSIST...
IMPACTING NEARLY ALL AIRFIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-44 AND SOUTH OF
I-40. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO NRN TX THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS NRN OK AND OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN
OK/NRN TX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK AND WRN N
TX...WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO MENTION FOR TAF SITES
ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX.

OVERALL...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY VARY THROUGH THE DAY...BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR...TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IF A SITE IS IMPACTED
DIRECTLY BY A THUNDERSTORM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY S/SEWRD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ON ITS
PRESENT TIMING/TRACK...THE QLCS WILL REACH THE OKC METRO BETWEEN
0230 AND 0300 AM CDT. THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
VAST...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AMARILLO OFF THE CAPROCK...EWD TO I-
40 ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER...NE THROUGH PONCA CITY...AND N INTO SRN
KS. MESONET OBS ALONG THE PATH HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT 45 TO 55 MPH
WINDS ALONG THE LINE...HOWEVER...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GIVEN ITS
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT THERE WAS A REPORT
OF POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN IN THE TOWN JET IN ALFALFA COUNTY AS THE
LINE MOVED THROUGH.

EXPECT THE QLCS TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT S/SE AT 35 TO 40 KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH GOOD SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR 0F
20 TO 35 KTS AND MUCAPES 1900 TO 2800 J/KG. THE N/NERN PORTION OF
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE SECTION TO WATCH
AS CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFS WILL BE 20 TO 25 K...WITH THE BEST POCKET OF
MUCAPES RESIDING SWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.

AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAWN...IT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN OK.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING A SFC TROUGH
ORIENTED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  69  83  70 /  20  40  40  40
HOBART OK         89  68  87  68 /  20  60  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  72  88  72 /  20  50  40  50
GAGE OK           83  64  84  64 /  20  40  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     82  66  84  66 /  20  40  30  20
DURANT OK         88  71  86  70 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03