Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 211755 AAC
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 3PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DID
TAKE BLAINE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...WHERE THE
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WENT WITH A GFS SOLUTION TO
BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND TIME OF THE YEAR...FOG
MAY PERSIST EVEN PAST NOON.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...THESE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  20  60  80  40
HOBART OK         57  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           47  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  47  62  51 /  40  50  60  40
DURANT OK         63  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04


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