Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 050346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED AT MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO
SE PARTS OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AREA WHERE THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THE MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE AND
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
PARTS OF THE FA BUT MODELS DISAGREE RIGHT NOW WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER... THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MODELS
EVENTUALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE FA SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE AREA.

MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT... RAIN
CHANCES MAY NOT COMPLETELY END LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  91  73  90 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         73  94  74  92 /  20  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           71  94  74  90 /  20  10  10  80
PONCA CITY OK     73  94  75  91 /  30  40  10  50
DURANT OK         73  90  74  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09/09


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