Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 021730
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 3000 TO 5000 FEET
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WHILE BR/FG CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. SO...IF IT
DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR
OVER W OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND BEYOND.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE...THINK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THUS...INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER DID NOT ALTER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THEY SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH 21-00Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST TERMINALS. RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO KEEP BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS. MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF RED RIVER BUT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...OVERALL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST DATA ON
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RIGHT NOW ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AND INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW EXITING MANITOBA AND ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS PROGD TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND TRAVERSE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTENING WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL PROBABLY BE
HARD TO GET ANY THUNDER...BUT WITH FAIRLY COLD CORE OF
SYSTEM...ENOUGH GRAUPEL GROWTH MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW
DISCHARGES SO WILL MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH CENTRAL U.S. OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE WEEK...SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH PROLONGED COASTAL REGION LOWER LEVEL RIDGING. GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN PROGD LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
INCREASE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         66  42  70  48 /   0   0  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  72  50 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           65  40  70  44 /   0   0  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  41  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         67  47  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23


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