Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 212116
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
316 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on the next 24 hours or so with fire weather and
winds being the main concerns.

This Afternoon... Scattered showers and a storm or two have
developed in SE portions of the fa this afternoon. Scattered showers
and some storms will remain possible in SE parts of the fa until dry
air spreading east shifts the rain east of the fa. Before the precip
moves out of the area, a few of the storms may become strong to
severe but it appears that most of the severe activity will remain
east of the fa today.

Winds in the advisory area for this afternoon have been increasing
over the last few hours with a few gusts to 40 mph seen on the OK
Mesonet within the last hour. This trend is expected to continue
with strong winds through early evening in western parts of the
area. These winds have also been causing some blowing dust to
develop in SW parts of the fa as noted on satellite.

Tonight-Monday... A cold front will move across the area tonight
causing winds to shift to the W and NW. These winds will likely be
strong across northern and west central portions of the OK overnight
into Monday. Will issue a wind advisory for tonight through Monday.
Winds are expected to begin to decrease across parts of the area
Monday afternoon as the storm system moves away from the region.
Cooler air moving into the region behind the front will knock high
temperatures down Monday compared to this weekend.

Rest of forecast... Temperatures will remain above normal this week
with highs back into the 60s by late this week. Models show an upper
trough and another front affecting the region Friday with another
chance for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area.

Fire Weather...
The dry air moving into the area this afternoon will continue to
cause RHs to drop below 20 percent for portions of the fa over the
next few hours. These low RHs, gusty winds, and the warm
temperatures have led to increased fire weather conditions which
will affect the area through early evening when some recovery will
occur. However, a wind shift will move across the area tonight
which could cause issues with any ongoing fires.

Despite cooler temperatures Monday, dry air in the region combined
with gusty winds and dry vegetation could lead to Near Critical to
Critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon in parts of the
fa. With this in mind, will continue with the current Fire Weather
Watch and let later shift decide whether a Red Flag Warning is
needed due to some uncertainties.

Increased fire weather concerns will continue through much of the
week. Conditions will be Elevated Tuesday and Wednesday, with
southerly winds returning by Wednesday. Breezy winds and warmer
temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday which could
increase fire weather concerns even more late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  50  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         35  53  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  37  56  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           33  49  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  46  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         41  54  33  57 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ009>011-
     014>018-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for OKZ009>011-014>018.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for
     OKZ004>008-012-013.

     Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for OKZ021-033>038-044-045.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ021>024-027-
     033>039-044-045.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/25


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