Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.

ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.

WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  59  75  59 /   0  10  60  60
HOBART OK         78  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  59  75  60 /  10  30  50  50
GAGE OK           79  57  77  56 /  10  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     80  59  79  59 /   0   0  50  60
DURANT OK         77  58  79  61 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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