Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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925
FXUS64 KOUN 122104
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT HERE.

STARTING TUESDAY...MOS GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW SOME SIGNAL OF LOW RH
VALUES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS
TIME...THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
RISE...REACHING INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF MODELS ON THESE WARM AND DRY DAYS OVER RECENT
WEEKS...NUDGED TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND NUDGED
DEWPOINTS DOWN TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME BREEZIER
CONDITIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  53  42  59 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         30  55  44  63 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  61  48  69 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           25  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     23  45  35  54 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         36  55  44  59 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/14



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