Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161743
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AROUND 4-5K FEET. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY NEAR LAW/SPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPS... SKY...

DISCUSSION...
INCREASED WINDS A SKOSH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... OBS TREND
SHOWS SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS... WITH GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTN AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
SLIDES E/SE OFF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE N/NW SFC FLOW... TEMPS
HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RECOVER ACROSS N/NW OK... FELT CONFIDENT
WITH THE RECENT HRRR/RAP BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN TO
CAPTURE THIS TREND. THE EXPECTED SCT STRATUS HAS STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES... SO TRIMMED BACK CLOUD COVER...
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT PNC AND OKC/OUN THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT BEFORE
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AND SPREAD SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OK. THIS STRATUS MAY
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL OK...BUT DO NOT EXPECTED IT TO
LAST VERY LONG AFTER SUNRISE. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT STILL IMPACT
MORNING LOWS FOR WED AS THEY DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF
I40.

DURING THE DAY WED...A LEE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE
SE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE WED AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER OK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP. ELEVATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE WED...BUT NOT LIKELY. ALSO...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE
WAA TAKES HOLD.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS THE
REGION DECREASING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES BUT
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE AN APPEARANCE
IN THE FORECAST AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE AS A VORT MAX IN ITS BASE TRAVERSES CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TX. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST QPF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR FA FRIDAY...AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
VERY LIGHT...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
DO NOT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE FRI ACROSS THE NORTH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SNOW
FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  42  38  46 /   0  40  40  30
HOBART OK         31  43  38  47 /  10  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  44  40  52 /  10  40  20  20
GAGE OK           29  45  34  42 /  10  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  40  33  42 /   0  30  60  30
DURANT OK         32  44  40  51 /   0  60  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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