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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

APPEARS THERE MAY BE TWO MAIN LINES/CLUSTERS OF TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
FIRST CLUSTER/LINE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA 20-23Z THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING KOKC
MAINLY 00-02Z AND KLAW/KSPS 01-04Z. THE SECOND CLUSTER/LINE
WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA 03-07Z...LIKELY AFFECTING KOKC AND KLAW 09-13Z.

BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 09Z. DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE LATE THIS MORNING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK AND THE
PANHANDLE REGIONS HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER
THAT HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATOP WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. ITS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENT OBS SUGGESTS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT IS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL OK AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS
MORNING AND ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
MORE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.

SEVERAL SCENARIOS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS TWO COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING PERHAPS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND AS FAR SOUTH
AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND MAY
IMPACT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL FA AREA LATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS WESTERN/SW OK THROUGH 06Z TO HIGH CHC CONSIDERING
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MOST SOLUTIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY WEST OF I35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  70  86  68 /  40  60  60  30
HOBART OK         97  71  93  68 /  30  40  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  74  94  71 /  20  50  40  50
GAGE OK           93  68  87  65 /  60  60  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     89  70  85  66 /  40  80  60  10
DURANT OK         92  73  91  71 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17