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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160701
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR UPDATE TO POPS...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS SRN KS. AS
THE LINE MOVED THROUGH DODGE CITY EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE SRN
FLANK CONTINUED TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH CONVECTION
WEAKENING AND NEW UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...THE NRN PORTION OF THE
LINE HAS MAINTAINED A DECENT SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH KIOWA...EDWARDS...AND COMANCHE
COUNTIES IN KS. THIS LINE HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE REPORTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH WINDS.

QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON HOW MUCH RAIN/THUNDER WILL IMPACT NWRN
OK THIS MORNING. WITH THE OUTFLOW REACHING BUFFALO...THE OK
MESONET PEAKED AT 35 MPH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ENTERING
WRN HARPER COUNTY. OVERALL...CONDITIONS FOR MCS MAINTENANCE ACROSS
NWRN AND INTO CENTRAL OK ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL...WITH ONLY A MODEST
LLJ AND COLD POOL DOMINANCE AS INDICATED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEW UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIKELY KICKED OFF BY THE
OUTFLOW...AND REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACROSS NWRN OK THIS
MORNING.

CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT AMBITIOUS FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH SUNRISE NEAR OR
JUST NW OF THE OKC METRO...SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EARLIER TODAY...HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT 8H FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS (EASTERN COLORADO) TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE STORMS
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST (CHANCE POPS) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AT MOST
SITES. HOWEVER... CLOUDS LIKELY TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH EXISTS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH AS SOME OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS DO DEPICT SOME
PRECIP SKIRTING THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15KTS WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REMAIN THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE DAY.

THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF A MEDFORD TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO
HENRIETTA LINE WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS/MID LEVEL TROUGH EXIST.
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS. LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AND KEEP ANY SEVERE ISOLATED AT BEST.
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 7 PM WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LATEST
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM KANSAS. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS MAY BE LINGERING AROUND...BUT
THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE RAINFREE WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS...PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD...WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
KEPT RATHER HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE BIGGER CONCERN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MAINLY NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING
COMPLEXES OF STORMS CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...HOTTER WEATHER
WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
ALLOWS FOR WARMER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER
CAPPING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREE OR
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  87  69 /  30  60  40  30
HOBART OK         96  70  94  68 /  20  40  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  94  72 /  10  20  30  40
GAGE OK           92  67  88  65 /  30  50  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  88  66 /  40  70  50  20
DURANT OK         92  72  89  72 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11