Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221527
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1027 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted precipitation chances the remainder of this morning and
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few isolated thunderstorms continued to evolve over portions of
southwestern Oklahoma this morning. Currently, most have begun to
dissipate given the lack of focused forcing and relaxing of the
low level jet. 22/12Z KOUN sounding revealed no capping inversion,
with a decent region of instability aloft... therefore, could see
some continual isolated development, however, the lack of a
focused forcing mechanism means most of the region will remain dry
into the afternoon and evening.

Still anticipate strong to severe storm development mid to late
afternoon over the panhandles. Storms will develop along the
redeveloping dryline this afternoon and instability will be
prevalent. Similar to yesterday`s activity, activity will slowly
move eastward into the evening hours as the large trough over the
western United States remains in command. A few storms may reach
western Oklahoma by 8 PM at the earliest. By the time storms get
to far western Oklahoma and western north Texas, large hail will
be the primary concern.

Made no changes to overnight precip chances. Still anticipate
remnant convection to move across portions of Oklahoma and north
Texas, but do not expect any of this activity to be severe.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR cigs are expected until late this morning and early this
afternoon for most terminals. A few showers have developed across
western OK, but confidence is too low to include TSRA right now.
Later this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms may
develop across the TX panhandle and move over the western OK
terminals, and SPS. For now, will include PROB30s as timing and
thunderstorm coverage is still a bit questionable. MVFR cigs will
return late tonight through early tomorrow AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly
track east early this morning across the TX panhandle and caprock.
This activity is within the mid level thetae ridge axis, and is
being forced by mid level WAA and confluent flow near the sfc. The
upper ridge will shift eastward a bit today as the mid to upper
trough moves into the SW CONUS. Height falls will begin to impact
the Southern Plains after 18Z today as the mid level moisture axis
shifts eastward over the WSW portion of our FA. By early this
afternoon, unstable conditions will once again develop especially
just west/sw of our FA. Storms are expected to develop on the
western fringe of the upper ridge, mainly across the SW.
Sufficient deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates may
support severe storms as early as 2 PM over this region. A complex
of storms may develop later tonight and surge southward over NW TX
as the LLJ intensifies a bit. Widely scattered storms will also
be possible across much of OK by tomorrow morning as height falls
continue over the mid level thetae ridge axis and mid level WAA
increases. This activity will shift eastward during the day
Monday.

Meanwhile, out west, the dryline is expected to near western and
northwestern OK during the afternoon hours. Storm coverage should
remain confined to this feature before 00Z until height falls
associated with a mid to upper shortwave trough impact the area.
Widely scattered storms should again shift eastward overnight
Monday into the I-44/I-35 corridors through the early morning
hours Tuesday. Severe storms will be possible thru late Monday
night, especially across western, northwestern, and southwestern
OK. This trend will continue Tuesday as relevant features shift
slightly eastward. However, most storms should again remain
confined to the dryline even more so than Monday until height
falls impact the region during the overnight hours. Very moist
boundary layer conditions will be present by this time and the LLJ
should ramp up quite a bit so expect an increasing tornado threat
through Tue evening especially across SW OK.

A break in at least widely scattered severe weather is expected
Wed with no identifiable mid to upper shortwave troughs
anticipated. However, very unstable conditions will remain present
as dewpoints creep into the 70s. A couple of diurnal supercells
may develop along the dryline Wed afternoon. Thursday will be a
tricky forecast depending on the timing of a southern stream mid
level trough lifting over central and northern TX. Severe storms
will remain possible as deep layer shear continues to increase
with the approaching trough, and storm coverage appears greater.
Uncertainty with the forecast will continue into Friday and will
likely depend on what is occurring through Fri AM. For now, it
appears the dryline will approach the I35 corridor as the upper
trough lifts northeastward. Locations outside of any
ongoing/previous moist convection, such as central, west central,
and northern OK may be favored areas for severe weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  67  81  68 /  20  30  30  30
Hobart OK         78  67  84  69 /  30  40  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  80  68  85  70 /  40  40  30  30
Gage OK           77  67  88  66 /  40  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     80  67  82  69 /  10  40  40  30
Durant OK         83  67  82  70 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/09



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