Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161704
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs - VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1035 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

UPDATE...
Cool again today with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Winds will be
lighter across the area today with sunny skies. Overall, going
forecast looks good, so no major changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Surface winds will generally remain light and become southerly at
all sites by 23 UTC. The winds will be stronger in northwestern
Oklahoma where gusts around 20 mph are expected 17-24 UTC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and quiet weather will occur this week with a slow increase in
surface temperatures, surface winds, and moisture. Widespread
rainfall may occur late Saturday into early Sunday.

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast and to
model guidance.

Although dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected by the
latter half of the week, below average ERC values should limit
wildfire potential over the next several days.

Today will be sunny and slightly warmer than yesterday in most
locations with highs about 3-8F below average. A few low lying
areas across the northern half of Oklahoma may have frost early
this morning. Surface winds will remain light except northwest
Oklahoma where they will be in the 10-20 mph range by afternoon
from the south. The air will remain unseasonably dry with
precipitable water values 0.25-0.40", below the 10th percentile
for this time of year and not far from climatological minimum
values for mid October.

Tonight through Thursday night, mostly clear weather will continue
with slightly above average temperatures expected by Wednesday
and Thursday. Model guidance lows may be slightly too warm due to
little cloud cover to allow for excellent nighttime radiational
cooling.

Friday into early Saturday, low level moisture will increase with
surface dewpoints rising into the 50s and 60s. Kept a dry forecast
due to sufficient capping though latest GFS/ECMWF depicted that
isolated showers/storms may occur. Breezy to windy south surface
winds will likely occur.

Late Saturday afternoon into Sunday, latest models were in much
better agreement depicting widespread QPF with a cold front and
mid/upper level trough moving across the Plains. A band/line of
storms with moderate to heavy rain seems likely Saturday night.
Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" seem to be the main
hazards with the line of storms. A few severe damaging wind gusts
may be possible with line as it moves across the area Saturday
night due to sufficient shear and instability, though it seems
unlikely surface winds will be as quite as strong or widespread
compared to this past Saturday night. Cooler conditions with
decreasing rain chances are forecast by Sunday afternoon.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         70  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/30/25


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