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000
FXUS64 KOUN 232029
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY PERSISTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING STORMS...FLASH FLOODING HAS BECOME A
THREAT IN THIS AREA...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OVER
AREA ROADWAYS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4 TO 6 AM TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DESPITE MID LEVEL RIDGING...A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED BOUTS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE PERHAPS A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  77  63  81 /  30  40  30  20
HOBART OK         62  84  64  84 /  60  40  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  88  66  88 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           58  80  62  84 /  40  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     57  75  62  83 /  70  30  20  30
DURANT OK         67  82  63  84 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84