Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The 18Z aviation discussion follows....


A very strong (by June in the southern Plains standards) cold
front extended approximately from KMKO to KSRE to KLAW to KLTS at
18Z. This front will continue to advance toward the south this
afternoon through tonight, moving well into Texas by Saturday
morning. Rather strong north to northeast winds will follow the
front today. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop this
afternoon near the front, but the chances of these storms
affecting any of our TAF sites are quite low. Later tonight,
probably around 06Z, new (elevated) convection is forecast to
develop near I-40 across the western half of Oklahoma. These
storms are likely to accumulate into a storm complex, and
spread/move southeast through Saturday morning. TSRA are therefore
likely at KHBR, KLAW, and KSPS late tonight into Saturday
morning...and may last for quite a while after they begin.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1143 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Updated forecast to decrease POPs (in general) and adjust hourly
temperatures, raising max temperature forecasts in some areas.

Despite the showers in northwest Oklahoma and the elevated showers
in the southwest, the trend of the high-resolution models has been
drier for this afternoon. And with only a little cumulus
development so far, this trend makes sense. Have generally
decreased POPs across the area, although keeping chances a bit
higher than high-resolution models would suggest with the
developing instability, decreasing CIN and a surface boundary.
The cold front has moved southeast of I-44, but temperatures
continue to be a bit warmer than the hourly grids suggested.
Temperature grids will be complicated today with the frontal
timing, but still mostly sunny skies continuing to warm

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

23/12Z TAFs. Primarily VFR forecast will continue. Post frontal
MVFR cigs possible mainly northern Oklahoma terminals through 18Z.
Gusty north and northeast winds will be seen behind the front as
it steadily progresses south through the afternoon with winds
subsiding after 00Z. MVFR conditions will be forecast mainly
southern Oklahoma and KSPS this evening and overnight associated
with higher chances for TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Last evenings convection dissipated over northwest Oklahoma which
resulted in a heat burst being detected at the Arnett Mesonet
site. Was somewhat unusual event in that there was not
substantial low level jet, and the stronger gusts (25 to 35 mph)
were from the north and northeast. Temperature/dewpoint was

Cold front making its way into far northwest Oklahoma early this
morning with a steady progression south and east through the day
expected. Some acceleration possible late this morning and this
afternoon as s/wv trough currently moving through Colorado
progresses eastward. This trough will also allow scattered storms
to develop near and north of the front. Cooling/impacts already
being seen with convective trends from eastern Colorado south and
east into the OK/TX Panhandles. Confidence not high that we will
see storms all day, with perhaps a lull in activity mid morning to
early afternoon and then redevelopment as strong central/southern
Oklahoma 700-600 inversion erodes. Various runs of the WRF most
aggressive at cooling mid-level temperatures and thus produces
widespread vigorous convection across much of southern Oklahoma
into northern Texas this evening and tonight. Thinking this may be
overdone given spread of high-res forecast soundings. We will have
highest PoPs across far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas where
convergence just north of surface front will coincide with mid
level cooling this evening/tonight.

With developing northwest flow tomorrow through early next week,
rain chances will stay mainly over far western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of northern Texas. However, majority if not all
rain may stay west of our CWA on higher terrain. By midweek, flow
becomes more zonal resulting in return to more of a southerly wind
component and increase in temperatures and dewpoints. Passing
s/wvs in fast flow to our north may allow for Kansas convection to
build down into low level jet Tuesday night through Wednesday
night and affect northern/central Oklahoma. There are hints at a
stronger and higher amplitude trough to move through central U.S.
late next week but timing differences among models will preclude
inclusion of PoPs.


Oklahoma City OK  61  82  60  82 /  30  10  10  10
Hobart OK         62  81  62  80 /  30  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  65  81  64  83 /  40  40  30  20
Gage OK           57  80  59  78 /  10  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     59  82  59  82 /  10   0  10  10
Durant OK         66  81  64  85 /  60  40  10  10




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