Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221758
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAW/SPS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT
LAW/SPS THROUGH 00-3Z WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE CSM/OKC/OUN
TAFS FROM 9-13Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SNOW MAY STILL MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE COMPLETELY CHANGING TO RAIN.
RADARS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MIXING IN AND PRECIP INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SO ADJUSTED POPS/WX GRIDS TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS/THOUGHTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE FROM KCSM/KHBR TO KOKC SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN OR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE MORNING. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN...WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING BY 21Z TODAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AT KGAG/KWWR AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE WINTER STORM THAT
HAS LED TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. A HEAVY EAST WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HAS LINGERED ALONG I-40 FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
GOOD NEWS IS...MUCH OF THIS BAND HAS BEEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST
RAIN...WHICH WE CAN ALL AGREE WE NEED BADLY! FOLKS ACROSS FAR WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...HAVE BEEN TREATED TO PRIMARILY
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS BAND..AND WHILE WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY OFFICIAL REPORTS OUT OF THAT AREA...IT WOULD BE SAFE
TO ASSUME A FEW PLACES HAVE PICKED UP AT LEAST 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO...THE HIGHER THE TOTALS...WITH AREAS
AROUND AMARILLO REPORTING UPWARDS OF 10-12 INCHES! THE GOOD NEWS
IS...THAT THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BAND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SO MUCH OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...WE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROGER MILLS AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...REPLACING IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL HERE...MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW HAS ENDED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT TRAVEL IS RECOMMENDED
HOWEVER...MANY AREA ROADS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
TREACHEROUS THIS MORNING. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL ANYWHERE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
TODAY...YOU MIGHT WANT TO POSTPONE OR CANCEL YOUR PLANS...LOTS OF
SNOW OUT THERE.

ELSEWHERE...ITS BEEN A SLOW TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
RAIN/SNOW...TO FINALLY ALL SNOW HERE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AND EVEN THOUGH IT SNOWING...ITS GOING TO HAVE TROUBLE AMOUNTING
TO VERY MUCH. THE REASON IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS ARE
EITHER RIGHT AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. SO IF THE SNOW
REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT INTO THE MORNING...MOST ROADS SHOULD BE
FINE...THOUGH THE GRASS MAY BRIEFLY TURN WHITE. A FEW AREAS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
BRIEF MODERATE SNOW...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING IF/WHEN RAIN/SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW...AND HOW LONG IT MAY LAST...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICK SPOTS OUT
THERE THIS MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST ROADS WILL JUST BE
WET.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN MOST
AREAS BY NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER
WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY INCREASED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         23  46  29  55 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  49  30  56 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           19  44  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         35  49  31  56 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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