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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141726
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK S-SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL DIURNAL VARIATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE
SOME CHANGES TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO
BE QUITE AS STRONG TOMORROW. ANY LOCATIONS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT WILL EXPERIENCE LLWS DUE TO STRONG
SW WINDS A SHORT DISTANCE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. SHORT-RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE KSPS AREA THIS EVENING...AND MOST
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BRING A STRATUS
DECK AT MVFR LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND SE OF I-44.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE
THIS MORNING WITHIN DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN OK/N TX WILL EASILY EXCEED 90 THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SOME MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MAYBE EVEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN N TX...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF WEST TEXAS. ADDED
AN ISOLATED MENTION BEFORE 00Z FOR PORTIONS OF W N TX. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL BACK SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE AT OR NEAR 20 PERCENT.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY...WILL NUDGE THE
ELONGATED TROUGH/LOW OVER MEXICO NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT USHER
IN AN AIR MASS CHANGE.

KICKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT MAY
HELP WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CASE A FEW
STORMS FORM AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG
CAP MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND OR COVERAGE FRIDAY. IF STORM
FORM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG A DRYLINE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN RISK SATURDAY.

STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MAINLY EAST AND NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  64  80  65 /   0  10  30  30
HOBART OK         91  63  85  63 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  65  85  66 /  10  30  30  20
GAGE OK           92  60  88  59 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     89  65  83  63 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         90  64  77  63 /   0  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23