Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected in general, although some MVFR cigs
are expected for a while Tuesday morning at KPNC and some
thunderstorms may locally affect conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1017 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Made minor updates to POPS and temperatures to reflect current
trends.

DISCUSSION...
Southeast Oklahoma along a boundary has shown the most promise
for any chance of precipitation this morning, though slight
chances still exist for the rest of the region. With cloud cover
and an approaching cold front, lowered temps in northern parts of
Oklahoma just a tad.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

AVIATION...
An outflow boundary will push south through most sites this morning
with northwest winds immediately behind the boundary. Winds will
gradually shift back to the east and southeast by afternoon. Some
morning showers/storms are possible, mainly across the north.
However with daytime heating expect additional, more widespread
activity this afternoon and evening. Some temp MVFR conditions may
occur associated with storms that develop.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Finally seeing some precip move into the area this morning.
Main impacts are expected to be across northern Oklahoma this
morning near and just south of weak sfc boundary. This is aided
by modest LLJ. Expect this activity to slowly decrease through
the morning hours as LLJ veers and weakens. However, activity will
lay out an outflow boundary that may act as focus for additional
development later in the day. In addition to other weak sfc front
that will be somewhere across the area. GFS would suggest by late
in the day, boundary may be located northwest Oklahoma southeast
through central into southeast parts of the state. Some
contribution is still possible from upper low that has been
talked about the last couple of days moving out of Arkansas, but
models are not as aggressive with precip associated with this low
across Oklahoma.

Many of the models continue to show increase in activity late
today into/through much of the evening across the area. Although
temps not expected to be as warm as they have been, atmosphere
still favorable for stronger storms to have the potential to
produce strong wind gusts.

Still have some opportunity for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday
into Wednesday, but not a whole lot to focus development. Small
scale features will dictate where activity is seen. However, by
late Wednesday and especially by Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF
show disturbance dropping southeast with better mid-level
flow overspreading the Southern Plains. This should result in
better rain chances again across much of Oklahoma and western
north Texas. These higher rain chances linger into Friday and
possibly Saturday before upper ridging tries to work back out
into the plains.

Throughout the week expect temps to be closer to normal and
perhaps a few degrees below normal as lower heights, cloud cover
and precip all contribute to slightly cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  75  92  75 /  40  30  20  20
Hobart OK         99  75  95  74 /  30  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX 100  76  96  76 /  20  20  30  10
Gage OK           94  70  93  71 /  40  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     90  73  92  74 /  50  30  20  20
Durant OK         96  75  94  76 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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