Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 262344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OVER TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOULD ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND MAKE IT TO KSPS LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN NEAR FRONT...
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT-TERM MODELS...ANTICIPATED CAP...AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING TSRA IN
TERMINALS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR END OF FORECAST
AND BEYOND ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING A
LITTLE COOLER WEATHER WITH IT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AS HOT AS TODAY AND IN SOME ZONE OF
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY EXCEED TODAY`S
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY FOR PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE STALLING OF THIS
FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA IN THE UPSLOPE BOUNDARY FLOW INTO THE FRONT. WEAK MID-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP BRING A STRONGER FRONT
INTO OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A COOLER AIRMASS. LESSER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
WHEN THE FRONT IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT. AFTER A MILD AND CLOUDY
MID-WEEK, A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  70  90 /  10  20  30  30
HOBART OK         74 101  70  92 /  10  20  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 104  75  95 /   0  10  20  30
GAGE OK           70  92  65  88 /  20  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  93  67  88 /  20  20  20   0
DURANT OK         76  98  74  94 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>031-
     033>036.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ032-037>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/11/11


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