Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200447
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06z TAFs:

Dew point depressions are already fairly low across southern
Oklahoma. With light easterly low level flow, some light fog may
form especially over south-central Oklahoma where rainfall
occurred last night. There is a lower probability of light fog
further west near Lawton and Wichita Falls, although there is a
signal in the models that this may be more of a low stratus
scenario. This makes conceptual sense. We will include a TEMPO
group for SPS and LAW for MVFR stratus and light fog/mist.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Some
variability of wind direction may occur but winds should generally
be east-southeasterly becoming more south-southeasterly tomorrow
afternoon. Western sites could see speeds greater than 12 knots
late in the TAF period. Light speeds are expected elsewhere.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Circulation around weak surface high pressure over northeast
Oklahoma, will keep a rather humid air mass over southern
Oklahoma and north Texas from advecting northward this afternoon
and tonight.

An upper ridge centered over the southwestern United States will
build eastward Tuesday. This will bring a return of 90 degree
temperatures which will last through the end of the work week.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. A few of these storms may move
across northwest and west central Oklahoma during the late evening
or overnight hours.

Models differ on the timing, but around the end of the week, a
trough is expected to move across the northern half of the
Rockies. This system is expected to push a cold front through
the area, perhaps as early as Friday night Saturday morning. This
should bring a decent chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.

Over the past 30-45 days, parts of central, west central,
and southwest Oklahoma & parts of western north Texas have
received little in the way of precipitation. Meanwhile, fuels
for grass and wildland fires are increasing. Therefore, breezy
southerly winds Wednesday into Friday may elevate fire weather
concerns, especially across western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  66  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         91  67  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  69  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           89  64  97  71 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     85  63  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         85  68  93  68 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/12



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