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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151158
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY.
LAW/SPS/OUN/OKC SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR TO MFVR RANGE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF IFR CEILINGS MAINLY AFTER 6Z THURSDAY IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MEXICO...WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWER
60 DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY...HEATING AND
LIFT FROM APPROACHING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF FA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN...LOWER 8H TEMPS...AND BETTER UPPER JET STRUCTURE
WILL BE.

UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BETTER INFLUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL
AS A STRENGTHENING CAP.

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TOGETHER
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. CAPPING MAY BE
AN ISSUE ON SATURDAY BUT STRONG HEATING AND A DRYLINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE SEVERE (MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). DEEPENING
ON STORM COVERAGE SOME STORMS MAY REACH CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS STRONGER FLOW DIGS ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A RISK OF TORNADOES EACH DAY.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALSO BRING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY WITH
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  64  80  66 /  30  50  10  10
HOBART OK         84  62  83  65 /  30  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  65  85  65 /  50  40  10  10
GAGE OK           88  58  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  62  82  67 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         79  62  79  67 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$