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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL BACK SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE AT OR NEAR 20 PERCENT.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY...WILL NUDGE THE
ELONGATED TROUGH/LOW OVER MEXICO NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT USHER
IN AN AIR MASS CHANGE.

KICKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT MAY
HELP WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CASE A FEW
STORMS FORM AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG
CAP MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND OR COVERAGE FRIDAY. IF STORM
FORM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG A DRYLINE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN RISK SATURDAY.

STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MAINLY EAST AND NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  64  80  65 /   0  10  30  30
HOBART OK         91  63  85  63 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  65  85  66 /   0  20  30  20
GAGE OK           92  60  88  59 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     89  65  83  63 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         90  64  77  63 /   0  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01