Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 302314
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA EARLY TONIGHT HAS DECREASED. WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TS FROM THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT BUT
REINTRODUCED THEM TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING
AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
MORE ESE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS PRODUCED A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT CONT TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTN. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THAN HAS
BEEN SEEN IN A WHILE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL AFTN/EVENING
TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY AS WELL AS NEAR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN THE CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE... THE UPPER RIDGE DOES LOOK TO RETROGRADE
BACK WEST... ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EARLIER ECMWF IN KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST AND THEREFORE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA FOR MORE
DAYS THAN NOT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS... SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER READINGS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CLOUD COVER AND SOME
PRECIP COULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK
AS WELL... BUT WILL CONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
MOST DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  87  70  87 /  30  50  30  20
HOBART OK         72  91  71  87 /  40  40  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  95  74  92 /  30  30  30  30
GAGE OK           68  87  68  85 /  30  40  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     69  90  70  88 /  20  20  10  20
DURANT OK         75  94  73  94 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/03/03


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