Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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639
FXUS64 KOUN 250525
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, think VFR conditions will continue.

A front will drift slowly south into northern Oklahoma overnight
and bring isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Increasing moisture over southeastern Oklahoma will allow more
thunderstorms to develop there Monday. The stalled front across
northern or central Oklahoma Monday afternoon will likely be
associated with more thunderstorms later in the afternoon and
evening. Variable gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions or lower
are possible with any thunderstorm. Exact timing and storm
coverage remain uncertain.

17/09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 901 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

UPDATE...
The heat advisory was allowed to drop at 8 pm this evening with no
current plans to extend into Monday right now.

A few storms developed in Northern and Southeast Oklahoma late
this afternoon/early evening. These storms, however, have
dissipated with the loss of heating. Additional showers and
storms are still possible across portions of the area
overnight/early Monday. The best opportunity will be with activity
that developed in the High Plains and Panhandles moving east into
the area. Overall, going forecast looks good with no major changes
but did make some minor tweaks to grids to better show current
trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

 /issued 149 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few mid level returns are still present on radar this afternoon
across portions of northwest OK, where a stationary boundary is
present. Could see some moist convection develop later this
evening across this region with the onset of LLJ and a mid to
upper trough axis moving through the plains. It appears the
boundary will become a little more focused by this time as well. A
few strong storms may try to nudge into northern OK with the main
threat being damaging winds.

Rain chances will continue to increase through tomorrow as mid
level perturbations rotate around the eastern periphery of the
ridge, and a mid to upper shortwave passes over southeast OK.
Temperatures will slowly begin to cool over the next several days
with our region becoming influenced by northerly flow as the ridge
continues to shift westward.

The highest rain chances will likely accompany numerous mid level
shortwave troughs moving within this flow by mid to late week.
There is now fairly decent agreement of one such wave moving into
OK Wed-Thu. The ECMWF and DGEX are still suggesting a surface
boundary lingering over us Thu and Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  91  74  93 /  30  30  10  10
Hobart OK         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  95  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
Gage OK           71  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     73  91  74  93 /  40  30  20  30
Durant OK         76  94  75  94 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09



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