Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
VIRGA/SHRA ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER MAY AFFECT KPNC EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OVER SD THIS MORNING...MAY SUPPORT
TSRA DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER KS...AND THESE STORMS HAVE A CHANCE
OF EXPANDING INTO N OK LATE TONIGHT. OUTSIDE TSRA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SOME VIRGA AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. IT
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A MOISTURE PLUME THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THERE.

THE WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN JOIN FORCES WITH ANOTHER
WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH FROM COAHUILA AND TEXAS. WITH
DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS...AND ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AT
HIGHER LEVELS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
TONIGHT MAY BE AN EXCEPTION...AS MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER KANSAS...AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPANDING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PART OF THE FORECAST IS
RELATIVELY LOW...AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER...AND TEMPORAL STABILITY DECREASES.

ONLY A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  59  83  60 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         85  61  86  60 /  10  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  60  87  60 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           84  61  85  60 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     80  58  83  59 /  10  30  30  20
DURANT OK         82  56  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23


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