Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280203
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
903 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Nearly all the earlier convection has dissipated. However, a
persistent area of storms over far northwest Oklahoma is shown as
continuing through the night by some short-range computer models.
With the weak forcing and moist atmosphere, it is difficult to
determine where any convective activity may occur or persist. With
this in mind, we have updated the forecast to reflect the current
trends, model outlooks, and uncertainty for the rest of tonight.

Otherwise, the warm and humid conditions with light southeast
winds will continue through the rest of the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
There is no significant change tonight through tomorrow, as
compared with the last several days. Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue, and there may be more persistent
rain/storms in far northwest Oklahoma, around KGAG and KWWR
overnight. Winds will remain generally light from the S/SE
(well outside thunderstorms, of course) through the period.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Diurnal moist convection continues to develop across portions of
central OK and western north TX this afternoon. Other storms where
located across the northern TX panhandle. Most of the activity
over central OK and W N TX will come to an end after sunset.
However, a subtle mid level shortwave trough, currently supporting
the activity across the panhandles, will move near NW OK so expect
low chance PoPs to continue there late tonight. A few showers and
storms may also continue across SE OK near a mid to upper shear
axis associated with the mid to upper low near east TX.

Over the next several days, at least some diurnal convection is
expected as we remain on the fringe of the upper ridge and a mid
to upper trough to our west only slowly progresses east out of
the southern Rockies. The highest PoPs will remain west of I35 and
mainly across NW OK in association with this feature. By late in
the week, chances will decrease as the ridge tries to move over
the Southern Plains but with abundant moisture remaining in place
and our region remaining near the northern fringe of the ridge,
suspect at least SCHC PoPs each afternoon for a portion of our
CWA. Overall, it appears temperatures will remain near or below
average through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20
Hobart OK         69  90  70  90 /  20  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
Gage OK           66  87  67  88 /  80  40  30  40
Ponca City OK     70  89  71  90 /  30  30  20  30
Durant OK         70  91  73  94 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/09


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