Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 301622
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
APPROACHES. RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE VIRGA
NOW...BUT ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CASE THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
30/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 04-06Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. -RA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ENTER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
ONSET AND AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CWA COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN...SOME
MODERATE...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER MOST
AREAS AND LASTING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE AVERAGE OF AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. HOPEFULLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE THAN JUST A SPOTTY OCCURRENCE. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW...BOTH THE GFS AND WRF INDICATE VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME
FOR CHANGE OVER OR MIX EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPTED TO TAKE OUT
MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER BUT WILL DEFER AND SEE IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SURGES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATION FOR CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FAIRLY QUICK BUT MODEST
WARMUP AHEAD OF ANOTHER RESPECTABLE FRONT MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN EASTERN
TROUGH AMPLITUDE. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE INTRUSION OF MIDWEEK
FRONT. 00Z GEM AND 06Z GFS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z ECM MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING FRONT
INTO REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH LAGGING POST
FRONTAL S/WV THE ECM PRODUCES A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL NOT BE ADDED
TO FORECAST WITH SUCH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  37  45  36 /  10  40  80  90
HOBART OK         49  36  43  36 /  10  60  90  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  39  45  39 /  10  30  90 100
GAGE OK           47  34  42  32 /  20  60  70  60
PONCA CITY OK     48  35  44  34 /  10  40  80  90
DURANT OK         55  38  48  40 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



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