Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 140455
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING BEFORE 18Z.

BEFORE 15Z...EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND
KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAINS MODERATE.
THESE THREE SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR/IFR BY 12Z. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE COLD FRONT 08-16Z.

AFTER 15Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AS LATE AS 21Z NEAR KOKC AND KOUN.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 07-10Z...AND BE
SOUTHEAST KSPS-KOUN NO LATER THAN 17Z.

MBS

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
INCREASING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO ANY
RAINFALL OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BETTER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ON MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY.  WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
APPROACH 20 PERCENT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF A BROAD RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF
WILDFIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  38  67 /  10  10  10   0
HOBART OK         44  63  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  30  69 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  60  33  65 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         46  64  46  67 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/17/17


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