Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 152254
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
554 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The August 16-17, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous thunderstorms across central/east-central Oklahoma will
continue to shift east-northeastward this evening. Expect the
convection to be east of all terminals by 00Z.

Additional showers/thunderstorms may affect northwest Oklahoma
late evening/overnight; therefore, will maintain TEMPOs at
KGAG/KWWR. Another area of showers/thunderstorms could affect
southern Oklahoma/adjacent parts of north Texas as well; however,
confidence is too low to mention in TAFs for now. Any impacts
would be primarily at KSPS/KLAW/KOUN.

A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front toward the the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and very humid conditions over Oklahoma and western north
Texas will help fuel strong storms this afternoon and evening.
Very heavy rain is expected with the stronger storms, which may
lead to areas of flooding if storms train or slow down
sufficiently. There is not enough confidence in flooding to
warrant a Flood Watch in this case. Persistent cloud cover has
maintained a relatively stable area over southwest Oklahoma and
much of north Texas, so this area will see mainly showers, with
only a few weak thunderstorms. The stronger storms should be
limited to central and north-central Oklahoma this
afternoon/evening.

Over the next several days, a series of mid/upper-level waves will
pass over the region, causing periodic increases/decreases in rain
chances. One of the stronger waves passes overhead tomorrow and
tomorrow night, bringing the highest rain chances to the area,
along with a risk of additional severe storms. This will be
followed by a brief break (lower rain chances) before additional
waves arrive. The more subtle waves are very difficult for models
(and us) to forecast beyond a day or two, so the rain forecast is
fairly "broadbrushed" until the final significant wave moves
through Friday night.

Both of the stronger waves will be associated with surface
fronts, but no major changes in temperatures are expected.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  91  71  90 /  60  40  70  10
Hobart OK         73  94  71  92 /  40  20  60  20
Wichita Falls TX  77  95  73  93 /  50  30  50  30
Gage OK           71  89  65  89 /  30  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  90  69  89 /  60  60  60  10
Durant OK         77  92  75  90 /  20  30  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/10/10



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