Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231144
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The August 23, 2016 12 UTC TAF discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, a low confidence aviation forecast, primarily through
this morning. Generally expect MVFR to IFR conditions to continue
at most TAF sites through this morning with low stratus. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning and may
occasionally affect or be in vicinity of KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KHBR.
Confidence is lower for showers and thunderstorms to affect
KCSM/KPNC/KSPS, so opted not to include in TAFs for now (but there
is a low probability at these terminals). Expect VFR conditions to
return by this afternoon.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may affect KGAG and KWWR
late this afternoon into the evening; however, the probability is
too low to include in TAFs.

Otherwise, gusty south to south-southwest winds are expected at
all sites through the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A compact vort max/shortwave trough, currently located across
western Texas, is expected to lift northeastward near the I-44
corridor through this morning. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop downstream of the vort max. Various
convective-allowing models (HRRR/HRRRX/4 KM nam) have been
consistent with this solution. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with progged precipitable water values of at least 2.0";
however, seasonably strong 700-500 mb flow (+3 standardized
anomaly at 700 mb) should result in relatively fast storm motion.

Additional thunderstorms may develop across the eastern Texas
panhandle later this afternoon in vicinity of a surface
trough/dryline, and may affect western Oklahoma late afternoon
into the early evening. Seasonably anomalous combination of
instability (MLCAPE >2500 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (at least
30 knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.

A cold front is expected to move into northwest Oklahoma late
Wednesday into Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible once again. Southward propagation of the cold front will
be relatively slow as the associated shortwave trough lifts
northeastward toward the Great Lakes, and likely will be driven
by convection and a resultant effective cold front.

The cold front/effective boundary is expected to be somewhere in
northern Oklahoma on Thursday, so the greatest chance of
showers/storms will be across northern Oklahoma. Progged
instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (~30
knots) will maintain the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Deeper moisture may rotate around a mid-level ridge into eastern
half of Oklahoma by Friday and Saturday, so will maintain at least
a chance of showers/storms both days. The greatest probabilities
will be east of I-35.

Another shortwave trough may move into the Plains by Monday with
a continued chance of showers/storms, especially across northern
Oklahoma.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm through the week with
highs generally slightly below to near average through the
forecast period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  73  93  71 /  60  10  10  20
Hobart OK         91  73  93  69 /  40  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  91  73  95  71 /  30  10  10  10
Gage OK           93  72  91  64 /  30  30  30  50
Ponca City OK     88  76  93  70 /  50  10  20  50
Durant OK         92  73  94  72 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/10/10


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