Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191749 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
SOME SITES ACROSS WRN OK MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. OVERALL... EXPECT ALL SITES TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... WITH CHANCES
FOR MVFR AND IFR FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR AND EVEN MVFR FOR A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS N TX
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. HAVE ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND INCREASED THEM OVER WESTERN OK/TX BORDER BEFORE 18Z.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OK AND MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW ENDING MOST PRECIP
CHCS ACROSS THE REGION.

STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX. STRATUS WILL ALSO
LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF I35 AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NEXT MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVELS PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME N/NE
OK EARLY MONDAY AM.

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUES AM AS A STOUT
VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY EVE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT ONLY
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SCHCS RIGHT NOW. MUCH DRIER BL
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY END.
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEARS VERY WARM AND DRY RIGHT NOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX...AS DEEP
WESTERLY/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR AHEAD
OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SCHC RAIN/SNOW POPS IN FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES THAT AREA AND
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  36  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  35  50  39 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  39  52  40 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           41  30  51  37 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     39  34  49  38 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         47  40  51  38 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/04/04


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