Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 132347
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
547 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING BEYOND 06Z.

THROUGH 06Z...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES.

06-18Z...EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE MODERATE. THESE
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG
MAY AFFECT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

BY 18Z...WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES...THOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGERED NEAR KOKC...KOUN...
AND KPNC 18-23Z SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 07-10Z...AND BE
SOUTHEAST KSPS-KOUN NO LATER THAN 17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
INCREASING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO ANY
RAINFALL OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BETTER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ON MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY.  WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
APPROACH 20 PERCENT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF A BROAD RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF
WILDFIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  38  67 /  10  10  10   0
HOBART OK         44  63  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  61  30  69 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  60  33  65 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         48  64  46  67 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/17/17


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