Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z TO 20Z.
SHRA IN PROGRESS OVER WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
GREATER IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL COME LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME. INITIAL STORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...A
COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX...AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS BY 12Z FRI.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PROLONGED IMPACTS TO VSBYS WILL BE
FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KCSM AND KHBR...NEARER THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS
LIFT OVER A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHERE FORCING AND RICHER MOISTURE RESIDE. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS...EXPECT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS QUITE LOW...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE CONTINUING SLOW STORM MOTION AND RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
HANDLED THE FRONTAL MOTION OR POSITION ALL THAT WELL OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HOT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE VEERED SFC
WINDS...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER...VERY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  88  71 /  30  60  60  40
HOBART OK         93  71  90  70 /  60  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  89  75 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           90  67  87  67 /  70  60  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     94  71  87  69 /  20  60  60  40
DURANT OK         94  74  91  74 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN


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