Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 031736 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...03/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD. HOWEVER... BKN TO
OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK... ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER... OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE KWWR/KGAG/KPNC SITES AND POTENTIALLY
KCSM/KHBR/KOKC/KOUN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS NRN OK FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. VIS AND CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT
TIMES AS WELL... OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY... WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  92  73  98 /  20  20  20  10
HOBART OK         72  98  73 102 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  99  76 102 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           68  93  69  98 /  60  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     70  86  72  94 /  40  60  40  20
DURANT OK         74  97  77  99 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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