Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 150938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY MEASURING A
TRACE. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITHIN
TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING OVER WICHITA FALLS AT THIS TYPING.

LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK S/WV MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SW OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, RESPECTIVELY. FAIRLY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUES WITH GFS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP AND WRF
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE. ECM APPEARS TO RESEMBLE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE. ECM AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. UNTIL THEN...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  10
HOBART OK         84  65  85  67 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           86  59  83  64 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  79  63 /  30  30  10  30
DURANT OK         83  68  87  69 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



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