Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 212101
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOG HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY NUISANCE TODAY... HOWEVER... CONDITIONS
HAVE... AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NRN AND WRN OK... WITH
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK.

FOR TONIGHT... PULLED BACK PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 7PM AND
MIDNIGHT. AS THE H500 SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TAKE A FAR SOUTHERLY
TRACK ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE GREATEST
MOISTURE RETURN TO SKOSH FARTHER TO THE EAST... SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS THOUGHTS. THROUGH THE EVENING... MID/UPPER 50S DPTS
REMAIN POOLED PRIMARILY EAST OF I-44 AND ALONG I-35 TO NEAR PONCA
CITY. HOWEVER... WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK... THE BEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN S/SW OF THE RED RIVER... ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT... INCREASED CHCS ALONG THE RED RIVER S/SW
THROUGH WRN N TX... AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT AND LIFT E/NE
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT... A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AS SFC DPTS PULL INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS... COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASING SWRLY LLJ... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN N TX/TEXOMA WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY... SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN N
TX. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TOTALS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX...
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ACROSS
TEXOMA. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSING IS POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY... WITH A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT... AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  62  52  60 /  60  70  30  10
HOBART OK         49  63  47  61 /  50  50  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  64  49  64 /  80  80  30  10
GAGE OK           41  62  40  55 /  10  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     50  62  51  59 /  50  50  30  40
DURANT OK         56  61  52  67 /  70 100  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.