Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 021950
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER AIR RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE LATEST TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HINT AT A
MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...AND SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
BE LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA. NONE-THE-LESS...
THE MEAN UPPER AIR RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE LEE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN BENEATH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL STIFFEN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND HELP FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL USHER A FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD OKLAHOMA/TEXAS AND MAY RESULT IN INCREASED
RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AND INITIATE A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENT RAIN PROSPECTS APPEAR TO TREND UP FROM AN INITIAL 20
PERCENT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT TO AT LEAST 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES OVER ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  92  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         71  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  73  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/06



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