Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 010256
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
956 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT...CONVERGENCE AROUND 7H WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.  CURRENT
GRIDS LOOK OK.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR BUFFALO...GAGE...WOODWARD...AND ALVA.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS...WHICH WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND OR SPRINKLES WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A KNOX CITY
TEXAS TO ANADARKO TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPEST...THOUGH THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN THESE
LOCATIONS AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED...THUS ANY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY
UNDER 0.25 INCH. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION AS THE AIR SHOULD BE TOO
STABLE. RAINFALL MAY BE SPOTTY WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.

MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING CONDITIONS OCCUR. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW. THE TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  67  47  64 /   0  10  30  10
HOBART OK         44  65  46  65 /   0  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  71  49  66 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           41  57  40  63 /  10  50  40  10
PONCA CITY OK     44  64  45  65 /  10  10  30  10
DURANT OK         53  74  53  66 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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