Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 271624
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016
A few showers remain late this morning, generally from Edmond to
Stillwater and Pawnee. As heating continues, isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms should form by mid afternoon. Several
models suggest areas from western north Texas into western and
central Oklahoma may have a better chance of rain. Any
precipitation this afternoon, should diminish quickly during the
Surface to around 5h flow is rather weak with slightly better
flow above. Enough instability ~ 1500 J/KG may result in a few
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
Mainly high clouds through the morning hours. One exception is PNC
where a short period of MVFR ceilings may occur as an outflow
boundary sinks south out of KS. Lower clouds have filled in to the
north of this boundary. Still expect isolated to widely scattered
aftn/evening storms, but chances remain too low to mention in TAF`s
at this point.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
Main concern will continue to be location and intensity of
For today, minor shortwave will move northeast out of New
Mexico into the Southern Plains. Forcing associated with this
wave will skirt northwest Oklahoma. Meanwhile, another weakness
in mid-levels will continue to move slowly westward across
eastern Oklahoma. These two area should have slightly better
chance for shower/thunderstorm development again today.
Sufficient instability will remain in place, even with overall
lack of wind shear for the possibility of isolated severe storms.
Storms will also be slow movers, producing heavy rainfall.
Moving forward, area of high pressure across southeast U.S.
will gradually build west toward the area, limiting precip
chances and likely resulting in drier and warmer conditions by
holiday weekend. However at least through mid-week, abundant
moisture will remain in place and with daytime heating, expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms every day.
Toughest part will be in trying to determine where convection
will develop each day, as small scale features will most likely
be determining factors. So will continue with widespread lower-
end pops through Thursday, before upper ridge limits precip
chances across the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 91 70 91 70 / 40 10 20 10
Hobart OK 91 70 92 69 / 40 20 30 20
Wichita Falls TX 92 71 93 71 / 30 10 20 10
Gage OK 90 67 90 66 / 40 30 30 20
Ponca City OK 89 70 91 70 / 30 20 20 20
Durant OK 90 71 92 72 / 40 10 20 10