Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 282009
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY.

OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
WEAK FORCING FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL. DID NOT GO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY NEAR AN ALTUS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY NEAR AN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS FROM HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE. ANY
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. RAINFALL SHOULD RAIN SPARSE AND UNDER 0.10 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ELK
CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTED THAT THE 850 MB
JET MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING. THUS...KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...OVERALL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
OCCURRED SOUTH OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHANDLER
LINE...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY EAST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         68  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  98  68  98 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  92  60  93 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  89  64  91 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         72  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.