Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 160430
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
IFR and LIFR conditions are expected into Monday morning along
with rain. The rain will end from the southwest, but fog is
expected to create IFR conditions northward into central Oklahoma
before daybreak Monday. Once the upper storm lifts out of
northwest Oklahoma Monday, some low clouds may again move into the
northern part of the state around the upper low pressure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 812 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unfortunately...freezing rain continues early this evening across
far northwest Oklahoma where temperatures remain near 32 degrees.
Periods of rain will continue into the overnight with temperatures
hovering around 32-33 degrees.

Widespread showers and storms continue to form farther south
across a large part of southern/central Oklahoma. Much warmer air
will continue to lift north and west this evening and part of the
overnight. Elevated instability around 250-400 J/kg will support
very heavy rainfall with a risk of some wind reaching the ground.

At this time, supercell structures, like the one south of Dallas,
are expected to remain south of the Red River this evening/early
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
IFR and LIFR conditions are expected into Monday morning along
with rain and, this evening, thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will
affect the southeast two-thirds of Oklahoma as they move
northeast. Areas of showers and rain will persist until after
daybreak Monday. Ceilings will lift later Monday with winds
turning west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Moist convection continues to increase across southwestern OK and
western north TX this afternoon. As the mid to upper low nears our
region this evening through early tomorrow morning, elevated
instability and mid level lapse rates will steepen in addition to
increasing deep layer shear. The strongest storms are expected
across western north TX and southern OK this evening, with another
chance for stronger storms over central OK by very late tonight.
Small hail and damaging wind gusts could accompany the stronger
storms.

Further west and northwest, temperatures are remaining near or
just below freezing. Therefore, decided to extend the ice storm
warning through 12Z Mon with additional precip accompanying the
aforementioned low. In addition, some wet snow will also be
possible across extreme northwestern OK late tonight through
early tomorrow morning near the center of the low. Accumulations
could exceed 0.5 inches across Harper Co. Given the amount of ice
still present, and the lack of significant snow accumulation,
decided against issuing any different headlines. Most of the
precipitation will come to an end after sunrise tomorrow, although
some rain/snow will be possible on the back side of the low across
northern/nw OK through late Monday morning.

A warming trend is still expected Tue through Sat as cloud cover
clears and heights increase ahead of the next mid to upper low
nearing west TX. This low is expected to elongate from the
southern TX panhandle through the Baja Wed, with low level
moisture increasing across the area ahead of it. Mid to upper
moisture, however, appears limited to SE OK. For now, feel like
this is the only area where low PoPs are needed for overnight Wed
as the low begins to lift over the Southern Plains. Mid to upper
shortwave ridging will then follow it for Fri, with fairly warm
max temps (mid to upper 60s) expected across most of the FA. After
Fri it appears another mid to upper trough will pass over the
Southern Plains around Sun. Some precipitation will accompany this
feature, although it`s unclear how much. Will keep SChc PoPs in
for now. Given expected temperature profiles, it appears it will
all fall as rain. A Pac cold front will also accompany the trough,
dropping temps back into at least the 40s and 50s by Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  52  32  50 / 100   0   0   0
Hobart OK         36  49  30  52 / 100   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  55  33  54 / 100   0   0   0
Gage OK           32  37  27  47 / 100  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     37  45  31  48 /  90  20   0   0
Durant OK         56  63  39  54 / 100  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09/09



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