000
FXUS64 KOUN 161735
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS (NOW-18Z) AND MAXT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NE OK AND NW AR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPS (MID 80S TO LOW 90S) GENERALLY WEST OF I35. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
LOW ACROSS SE OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP IT BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. LOWERED TEMPS
EAST OF I35 A BIT WHERE STRATUS WILL LINGER AND INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS SE OK. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES MADE.

BARNES

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OKC/OUN FOR
A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.

RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.

SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.

BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.

MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  65  83  68 /  30  10  10  10
HOBART OK         83  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           83  63  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  64  83  69 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         77  67  82  68 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/25/25