Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 122227
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
427 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017
Around mid afternoon, temperatures ranged from the mid 30s across
northwestern Oklahoma to the lower 70s in far southeast parts
of the state. After sunset and overnight, temperatures will drop
below freezing north of a Shawnee to Lawton and Vernon, Texas
line and perhaps farther south.
As moisture increases above a shallow cold airmass, lower clouds
will develop and spread northward. NAM soundings suggest that by
midnight to 3 am...small convective showers may develop,
especially across the southern half of Oklahoma. Overall
confidence in this not high, but HRRR runs look somewhat
similar. Therefore, there is a risk of some light icing by
sunrise Friday, mainly within the Freezing Rain Advisory.
Weak isentropic ascent will continue through the day Friday
and this will result in mainly scattered areas of light freezing
rain and freezing drizzle. Mainly a cold rain is expected across
south central and southeast Oklahoma.
Although only light amounts of rain are expected during the day,
this may provide the best chance to create problem spots on roads,
especially bridges and overpasses.
Friday night into Saturday, isentropic lift will increase and
this will result in more widespread areas of freezing rain and
rain. This will also increase accumulations of ice on elevated
objects such as trees and power lines.
The temperature forecast and the risk of freezing rain and ice
becomes more uncertain during the day Saturday. The NAM was
followed closely for temperatures through Saturday night with a
slight decrease in temperatures across the northern half of
Oklahoma on Saturday. By late Saturday afternoon or early
evening, most areas along and south of Interstate 40 should be
above freezing. Farther north, freezing rain with embedded
thunderstorms should continue through at least early Sunday
morning. This will result in more ice accumulations and an
increased risk of power outages etc.
At this time, temperatures are expected to rise above freezing in
northern Oklahoma by at least Sunday afternoon.
A rather strong trough will move across west Texas and into the
central Plains Sunday into Monday. This will bring a period of
showers and thunderstorms, with a risk of heavy rainfall and
perhaps strong winds. There may be a risk of a few severe storms
across the southern part of the forecast area Sunday. We will try
and address this topic better in later forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 28 31 31 34 / 40 60 80 80
Hobart OK 28 30 30 32 / 30 50 70 80
Wichita Falls TX 33 34 33 37 / 40 60 70 70
Gage OK 23 27 27 31 / 10 30 60 80
Ponca City OK 26 30 29 31 / 20 70 70 80
Durant OK 38 45 38 43 / 40 60 70 60
OK...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Saturday for OKZ037.
Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Saturday for OKZ021>030-033>036-038.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ083>085.