Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181659
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Adjusted temperatures through the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are going to be a tough forecast through the
afternoon. With fog and clouds lingering through the late
morning, temperature trends have been slow to warm. Visible
satellite imagery shows some fog dissipation across southwestern
Oklahoma, west of Wichita Mountains, with high clouds lingering.
Currently, 1040 AM CST, at Duncan, it was 61 F, which occured
right as a break appeared in the clouds and fog. This suggests
some quick rebounding could occur within the breaks, and this will
be the hardest aspect to capture in the temperature forecast, not
a fan of chasing obs.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities will linger through much of
the morning before improving this afternoon to mainly VFR
conditions. However, these lower ceilings and visibilities are
expected to redevelop overnight into Sunday morning.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns are with possible fog and drizzle this
morning/Sunday morning and approaching storm system and associated
rain/thunderstorms.

Will continue to see increase in low level moisture and
associated cloud cover this morning. Moisture may become
sufficient enough for some patchy light drizzle toward morning
across parts of central and southeast Oklahoma, along with some
patchy fog. Should see clouds gradually break up from west to east
during the day, however parts of central and eastern Oklahoma may
struggle to see much in the way of sunshine today.

Expect redevelopment of low clouds quickly this evening, and some
patchy fog is again possible late tonight into Sunday morning. As
upper system approaches Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will
develop. This could impact parts of southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas before midday Sunday. However, still anticipate more
robust convection to take place Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening as main storm system moves out into the Plains. Models
continue to disagree with amount of instability available with
this system, but it does appear that sufficient instability will
exist for a few strong to perhaps severe storms late Sunday.
Highest chances will be across southern Oklahoma southward into
north Texas, with the main impacts being hail and strong winds.
Secondary concern will be with heavy rainfall, which should be
confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma as system begins to slow
as we go through Monday. Still most of the heavier rainfall should
move east of the area by Monday afternoon.

Otherwise, much of the week will continue to see very mild
temperatures and dry conditions. Another storm system expected to
move out of the Rockies into the Plains by late Thursday into
Friday. This system may be a bit moisture starved as the earlier
system drops south into the gulf, limiting moisture return ahead
of the late week system. This may result in elevated to possibly
critical fire weather conditions developing Thursday with gusty
winds and very warm temperatures with little in the way of rain
chances.

Some cooler air will overspread the area in the wake of this
system as we go into next weekend, although temps still expected
to be at or slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  53  70  52 /  10   0  50  70
Hobart OK         61  50  69  46 /   0   0  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  64  53  72  50 /   0   0  60  50
Gage OK           72  47  68  45 /   0   0  40  30
Ponca City OK     66  50  72  55 /  10  10  20  80
Durant OK         62  56  73  57 /  10   0  40  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/03


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