Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 122227
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
427 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Around mid afternoon, temperatures ranged from the mid 30s across
northwestern Oklahoma to the lower 70s in far southeast parts
of the state. After sunset and overnight, temperatures will drop
below freezing north of a Shawnee to Lawton and Vernon, Texas
line and perhaps farther south.

As moisture increases above a shallow cold airmass, lower clouds
will develop and spread northward. NAM soundings suggest that by
midnight to 3 am...small convective showers may develop,
especially across the southern half of Oklahoma. Overall
confidence in this not high, but HRRR runs look somewhat
similar. Therefore, there is a risk of some light icing by
sunrise Friday, mainly within the Freezing Rain Advisory.

Weak isentropic ascent will continue through the day Friday
and this will result in mainly scattered areas of light freezing
rain and freezing drizzle. Mainly a cold rain is expected across
south central and southeast Oklahoma.

Although only light amounts of rain are expected during the day,
this may provide the best chance to create problem spots on roads,
especially bridges and overpasses.

Friday night into Saturday, isentropic lift will increase and
this will result in more widespread areas of freezing rain and
rain. This will also increase accumulations of ice on elevated
objects such as trees and power lines.

The temperature forecast and the risk of freezing rain and ice
becomes more uncertain during the day Saturday. The NAM was
followed closely for temperatures through Saturday night with a
slight decrease in temperatures across the northern half of
Oklahoma on Saturday. By late Saturday afternoon or early
evening, most areas along and south of Interstate 40 should be
above freezing. Farther north, freezing rain with embedded
thunderstorms should continue through at least early Sunday
morning. This will result in more ice accumulations and an
increased risk of power outages etc.

At this time, temperatures are expected to rise above freezing in
northern Oklahoma by at least Sunday afternoon.

A rather strong trough will move across west Texas and into the
central Plains Sunday into Monday. This will bring a period of
showers and thunderstorms, with a risk of heavy rainfall and
perhaps strong winds. There may be a risk of a few severe storms
across the southern part of the forecast area Sunday. We will try
and address this topic better in later forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28  31  31  34 /  40  60  80  80
Hobart OK         28  30  30  32 /  30  50  70  80
Wichita Falls TX  33  34  33  37 /  40  60  70  70
Gage OK           23  27  27  31 /  10  30  60  80
Ponca City OK     26  30  29  31 /  20  70  70  80
Durant OK         38  45  38  43 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     OKZ004>020.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for OKZ037.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Saturday for OKZ021>030-033>036-038.

TX...Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for TXZ083>085.

&&

$$



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