Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 192315
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT LOWER CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL START WITH
SOME SCATTERED 4-5KFT THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN NC/C OK LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING... BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...SUGGESTED A
LIGHT QPF SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF A ALVA TO WEATHERFORD
TO ADA LINE. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...SO
KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. FIRST DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR NEAR ENID AND PONCA CITY SOMEWHERE IN THE 7 TO 11 PM
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO COULD BE AFFECTED AFTER 2 AM.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT NOT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY MORNING...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER NEAR A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR I-40...MAINLY
EAST OF OF EL RENO.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO WARM AND RATHER HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THINK CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A ONE TO
TWO STORMS FORMED NEARLY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A WEAK RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS SEEMED TO BE
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH MUCH OF RAIN
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  81  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         56  83  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  58  83 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           52  80  51  80 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         52  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17


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