Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 250831
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
331 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Main concerns will be with regards to potential severe
weather/fire weather Sunday and heavy rainfall mid-week.
As large upper low cont to pull east this morning, could have a
few lingering showers across northeast parts of the area.
Otherwise, anticipate a quieter day today with diminishing
northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
Winds will quickly turn back to the south/southeast overnight
tonight and increase Sunday morning. These winds will pull
increasing amounts of low level moisture back north into the area.
Models have trended back to showing a plume of better moisture
moving north into the area ahead of small compact storm system by
Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS shows upwards of 1500 J/kg developing
along and ahead of a dryline that takes shape from northwest
Oklahoma southward into western north Texas by afternoon.
Favorable wind profiles also would suggest the potential for
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing all types of severe
weather. I think there is still some uncertainty with regards to
moisture return, but if sufficient low level moisture can return,
allowing lower LCL heights, some tornado potential will exist
across the area Sunday afternoon into the evening hours,
especially where the SPC currently has an enhanced risk area on
their latest day 2 outlook. This would include the OKC metro area.
Stay up to date on the latest as this continues to evolve.
Some fire weather issues may develop on Sunday as well across
parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, to the west
of the advancing dryline. However, with some uncertainties
regarding the location of the dryline and wind speeds that may
only reach criteria for a short time, will hold off on any
headlines at this point.
This system will shift east rather quickly Sunday night with
another cooler and dry day Monday. A rather active period is then
anticipated for much of next week as a couple of storm systems
move through the central part of the country. Severe weather can
not be ruled out, especially across southern Oklahoma into north
Texas Tue/Wed time frame. However, think main impact will be the
potential for significant and much needed rainfall. Current
forecast however does have anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain
from late Tuesday through Thursday. Confidence in the day to day
details however remain somewhat limited in the mid to late week
time frame as differences begin to show up between the medium
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 45 77 52 / 0 0 30 40
Hobart OK 67 46 79 49 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 71 48 85 51 / 0 0 10 10
Gage OK 67 43 76 43 / 0 0 20 20
Ponca City OK 58 41 74 50 / 20 0 40 70
Durant OK 70 49 80 57 / 0 0 40 60