Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 261643
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SFC WIND GUSTS OVER 30KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
AT MOST SITES... WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 15Z MONDAY. SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND VEER BY END OF FORECAST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

.UPDATE...
WILL INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MIX AS
DEEP AS SATURDAY...BUT MUCH STRONGER WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY HOWEVER.
WINDS MAY BE BACKED SLIGHTLY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY...SO HIGHS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO "COOLER"...BUT CERTAINLY NEAR RECORD HEAT
FOR LATE OCTOBER. GUSTY WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BETWEEN
25-30 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES 13-17Z. GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES 16-23Z.

ADDED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KLAW WHERE THIS IS
LIKELY OCCURRING BASED ON WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RADAR MEASURED
WINDS 1500 FT AGL. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY RETURN
TO MOST SITES AFTER 23Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.
FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS TRICKY.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT SUNNY DAY WITH STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH.

WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
RECENT DRY WEATHER...CLOUDLESS SKIES...AND SINCE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY DUE TO SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BE NEAR I-44 BY
SUNSET. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS AFTERNOON
COOL AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT HEATING NORTHWEST OF I-44. WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IF SKIES STAY MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THESE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MONITOR FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. FIRST DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT TOWARDS SUNSET. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 0.25 INCH AND NOT
WIDESPREAD. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
MARGINAL HAIL TO QUARTERS AS THE MAIN HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO 7.5 C/KM. KEPT THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF I-35.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED
RIVER...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER
TO AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF PATCHY
FROST OCCURRED IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SEEMS UNLIKELY.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  60  83  52 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         93  60  83  51 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  60  90  55 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           94  55  76  42 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  63  80  49 /   0  10  10  30
DURANT OK         90  60  84  60 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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