Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200505
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM... HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING CHANCES FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. WITH THE H500 LOW
DIGGING ACROSS NRN MEXICO... A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
FROM THE GULF INTO ERN TX/SERN OK THROUGH SAT... POOLING DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT AFTN. AS FOR
FRIDAY... THE INITIAL AXIS OF SFC/BL MOISTURE WILL REACH ALONG THE I-
35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRI AM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO OK. FOR THE MOMENT... INITIAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN OK. THROUGH THE AFTN... ACROSS WRN N TX INTO WRN OK... A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SFC CAPE WILL DEVELOP... STRETCHING EAST OF
THE CAPROCK INTO THE TEXOMA REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE... BELIEVE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TEXOMA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS WRN N TX... AS THE SFC LOW STARTS
TO LIFT E/NE OUT OF WEST TX AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HAVE
LOW EXPECTATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WRN N TX... BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS WRN N TX
WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. INTO SAT MORNING...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LAYER PWATS SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 1.20IN... WELL IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOV. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FRI-SAT) WILL APPROACH
1.5-3.0 IN... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40. THIS HAS RAISED SOME CONCERN... BUT FOR THE
MOMENT... GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE EVENT... THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS MINOR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER... THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY AS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  56  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         28  56  37  54 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  65  45  63 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           24  52  29  49 /   0   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     25  50  36  54 /   0   0  30  30
DURANT OK         35  63  50  63 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/14/14



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