Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 250342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING. RADARS
ARE DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR
(00Z DDC) IS RESULTING IN EVAPORATION (VIRGA). SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT ALL SITES 03-10Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH 03-14Z...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 12-15Z.
GUSTS OVER 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

-SHRA MAY BE NEAR KPNC 04-11Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER MAINLY TOMORROW/SUNDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND LAST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FEBRUARY.

AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH OUT A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED TO CREATE HIGHLY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT
FORECAST OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
WITH THE STRONG WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO
GET STARTED WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. DESPITE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOW...OUTSIDE OF A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...1HR
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY AND WILL BE AVAILABLE. WILL STRESS
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A PROBLEM AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAJORITY
PROGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLDOWN TO END JANUARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD AIRMASS PROGD TO MOVE IN SATURDAY BY THE ECM/DGEX WITH THE
GFS MUCH SLOWER. GFS ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION/INTENSITY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. DPROG/DT YIELDS MUCH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECM/DGEX. WE THEREFORE COOLED TEMPS
QUICKER TOWARD END OF FORECAST AND DID NOT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIKE THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LEFT THEM IN FOR
FORECAST COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE
DRIER ECM OVER THE WET GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  59  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           36  61  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  60  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         40  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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