Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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407
FXUS64 KOUN 262339 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
539 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION...
27/00Z TAFs. Visibility/ceilings expected to fall into IFR from
KSPS northward through most of Oklahoma terminals late tonight and
tomorrow morning as warm front develops near Red River and lifts
north as 50+ dewpoints spread northward into large area of 40
degree t/td low level environment. Conditions will improve over
western Oklahoma into KSPS toward and after 18Z as low level flow
veers and mixing increases. Will likely stay at least MVFR
tomorrow afternoon near and east of KOKC-KPNC. Drizzle and perhaps
showers possible late tonight and Monday morning but main
restriction will be fog and stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For tonight, scattered showers/storms will be possible across
southeast Oklahoma as isentropic ascent increases and a warm front
lifts northward. As this front lifts northward, abundant cloud
cover is expected for most locations on Monday. Showers and
isolated storms will remain possible as well--especially east of
Interstate-35.

By Tuesday, a mid/upper-level trough will eject into the Southern
Plains. In response, a surface low is expected to develop across
the Oklahoma panhandle and shift eastward through the day. This
will veer the surface to 700 mb winds toward the southwest/west,
which will propagate a dryline eastward into western
Oklahoma/north Texas. Mixing behind the dryline will allow 45+
knot 850-700 mb winds to at least partially reach the surface--
especially across the west. Therefore, locations near the 100th
meridian could see wind gusts over 45 mph. The combination of
warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will
result in a critical to extreme fire weather conditions.
Therefore, opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday.

Across eastern Oklahoma, progged moisture advection is forecast
to advect 60F+ dewpoints into the region. These dewpoints will be
sufficient for MLCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg. In addition, effective
bulk shear is progged to be 50-55 knots. This combination of
instability/shear will provide a parameter space that could result
in some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to pass by Tuesday night, bringing a
return to more seasonable temperatures for Wednesday. At least
elevated fire weather conditions will continue on Wednesday with
breezy northerly winds.

Many locations are expected to see a freeze by Thursday morning
with a surface ridge overhead. As the ridge shifts eastward,
southerly winds will return by Thursday with a warming trend into
next weekend (with a continued elevated fire weather conditions).

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  65  51  78 /  10  20  10   0
Hobart OK         41  66  46  79 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  74  52  82 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           33  70  45  75 /  10  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     37  65  49  74 /  10  20   0  10
Durant OK         51  70  58  78 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

12/11/11



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