Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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618
FXUS64 KOUN 270159
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
859 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We hesitantly added low precipitation chances across far northern
Oklahoma for tonight. Convective coverage to our northwest over
the front range into central High Plains is fairly significant and
may generate a sufficient cold pool to sustain its eastward trek into
Kansas. Low-level easterly flow is quite moist with 0-1km mean
mixing ratios and 850 mb theta-e values increase through the
evening and into the night. At the same time, convective
inhibition will strengthen as the boundary layer stabilizes and
upstream environment (as sampled by 00z DDC sounding) is
characterized by warm layer/capping just below 700mb. If a strong
enough cold pool can form this evening, thunderstorms stand a
better chance of moving into western and eventually central Kansas
and could approach the Oklahoma border. Their southward extend
very much into Oklahoma is in doubt given the presence of stronger
capping inversion with southward extent. We will continue to
monitor trends and increase probabilities if necessary but for now
we kept the chances less than 20 percent and confined to near the
Kansas border.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR cigs will impact a few of the terminals by early tomorrow
morning as winds become southeasterly overnight. Mid to upper
level clouds will also increase over the area. Wind speeds will
remain below 10 kt until late Sat morning before increasing from
the south during the afternoon hours. Gusts to around 20 to 25 kt
can be expected by then. The low stratus should dissipate/shift
eastward after 16Z. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near
OKC/OUN after 21Z, but confidence in TSRA actually impacting these
terminals is fairly low right now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  69  94  64 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         90  66  98  64 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  95  71 101  67 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           85  64  87  56 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  67  90  62 /   0  10  10  20
Durant OK         95  75  92  70 /  10   0  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/03



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