000
FXUS64 KOUN 231128
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SITUATION THIS MORNING EQUATES TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IN TIMING OF EVENTS. WHAT IS
PROBABLE...HOWEVER...IS TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OK. EXPECT +TSRAGR TO
AFFECT KOKC AND POSSIBLY KOUN EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING...TSRA SHOULD SUBSIDE. EXPECT
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING IFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY IN
W OK AND KSPS AREAS. SOME +TSRA ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND S/SW OF KCSM...KLAW...KHBR...AND KSPS. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED MOSTLY ON CUE THIS MORNING...IN AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS AREA...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE ATTENDANT RISKS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...CORRESPONDING TO THE CURRENT
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
FLOAT AROUND IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A STRENGTHENING CAP REDUCES THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO
FORM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY STORMY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DETAILS THAT FAR OUT
ARE RATHER SKETCHY...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS SEEM PROBABLE ONE OR
BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  62  76  65 /  50  50  40  40
HOBART OK         83  63  84  66 /  30  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  69  87  68 /  20  50  30  50
GAGE OK           77  59  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     78  57  76  64 /  30  30  40  30
DURANT OK         84  68  81  65 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23