Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 011946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND EMBEDDED MCV IN SOUTHWEST CONT TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN UPTICK IN THE
CONVECTION JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX... IN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... COULD
SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME OVERNIGHT WAA.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY... MUCH OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. MODELS DO
INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MARKING A RETURN TO HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GFS DOES BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE WEST AND TRIES TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SFC FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         72  94  72  95 /  20  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  73  98 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



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