Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 020313 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
913 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AND TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT... PULLED BACK CHANCES FOR RA/DZ EARLY
THIS EVENING AND FZRA/FZDZ OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN OK/TEXOMA AND WRN
N TX. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR HAVE TRIMMED BACK
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP... HOLDING THEM S/SE OF THE RED RIVER.
FROM EARLY RADAR TRENDS... THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PROBABLE. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE... HAD TO REIN IN TEMPS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER
FORECAST WAS DROPPING THEM TOO FAST. WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST... TEMPS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...
CONTINUED WITH LIGHT RA/DZ CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. KEPT
FOG CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT... BUT DROPPED TO PATCHY AS N/NE WINDS
ACROSS NRN OK DON`T ALWAYS BODE WELL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... WITH THAT SAID... WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE GROUND... PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.

WENT WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT NEARLY ANY SITE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KLAW AND KSPS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE.

-DZ OR -FZDZ MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF KHBR-KOUN AFTER 06Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THIS ISSUANCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. THERE ARE ALREADY TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS WILL BE COMPOUNDED LATE TONIGHT AS SLUSHY/WET
UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS REFREEZE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM
ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND
NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG
ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR
A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY. TRENDS OF MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING AS
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THIS
TRANSITION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

THEREAFTER...MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  33  26  39  37 /  30  10  10  30
HOBART OK         34  24  36  35 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  28  39  37 /  30  20  10  40
GAGE OK           33  20  38  37 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     32  22  40  37 /  20  10  10  30
DURANT OK         37  31  42  40 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/17


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