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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171116
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN MANY PARTS OF
OKALAHOMA UNTIL LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIST IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
SUN TODAY WHEN TEMPERATURE RISE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN THEY
DID YESTERDAY. A DRYLINE MAY NUDGE INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE. SOME FOG COULD FORM
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND MOIST FLOW INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN REACH OF OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO
THE EAST AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL THE EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEARBY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE STORY CHANGES SUNDAY
WHEN OKLAHOMA COMES UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHILE A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ASSOCIATE
TROUGH MAY DRIVE A FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE MIXING BRINGS THE DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BECOMING SEVERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAREST THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL INTERACTWITH
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THAN ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE. CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, MORE THAN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. AFTER A COOLER AND CALMER TUESDAY, THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES AGAIN AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         88  68  98  66 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  99  68 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           89  65  95  60 /  10  10  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     83  67  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         82  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
     010>013-015-017>020-026.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09/09