Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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906 FXUS64 KOUN 250007 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 707 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A surface warm front will slowly move towards the north this evening. Isentropic ascent along and ahead of this boundary will support periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the northern half of the area. Elevated instability overnight into the morning will support hail with the most intense cores. The main upper level support will move through the southern Plains Thursday afternoon, providing sufficient large scale ascent over our area. A dryline is forecast to move into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon. All ingredients align for any initial cells that develop along the dryline to produce severe weather, potentially significant severe with all hazards possible. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Thursday Night into Friday: As the synoptic scale lift shifts towards the northeast overnight Thursday, the dryline/Pacific front will push eastward. Additional thunderstorms will form along the boundary overnight across far western north Texas. This development is expected to grow upscale into a line overnight from southwestern to central Oklahoma, and shift eastward through the morning. With sufficient shear, instability and a strengthening low-level jet, severe weather remains possible with all hazards in play. The dryline/Pacific front will stall somewhere near the I-35 corridor Friday afternoon, and may be the focal point for additional redevelopment. The main limiting factor is that the main forcing will be off to the east. The thermodynamic environment will be uncapped and with sufficient deep-layer shear, any storm that can form, has the potential to be severe. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma as sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RHs in the teens will be likely behind the dryline. Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for significant severe weather across the entire area. Moisture return ahead of another advancing negatively-tilted mid-level wave will move in quickly. A dryline will once again sharpen across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles/state line as a surface low deepens in southwest Kansas. There are still model uncertainties with this system, however. Timing of the mid-level trough will greatly impact when the large scale ascent overspreads our area, and if convection can stick around Saturday morning, that will likely hamper convection later in the afternoon. A slower trough ejection and morning convection will limit severe potential, but if there is no morning convection and the timing of the wave coincides with peak heating, significant severe weather will be expected will all hazards possible. Lastly, depending on how many rounds of rainfall we get through the remainder of the week, will dictate the flooding potential by Saturday. By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move out of the area with weaker flow aloft. Higher heights will move in by early next week, with a warm up into the 80s by Tuesday and low chances for thunderstorms. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to form overnight with showers and thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma before sunrise. IFR ceilings are expected at most TAF sites by sunrise and lasting into the daytime Thursday. Southeast wind will turn south and become moderately gusty Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are possible in western Oklahoma in the late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 77 64 83 / 70 50 90 30 Hobart OK 65 78 59 85 / 50 30 80 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 80 64 85 / 40 10 90 20 Gage OK 57 81 54 86 / 50 40 40 0 Ponca City OK 58 73 62 83 / 80 100 90 40 Durant OK 66 79 67 80 / 30 20 60 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...09