Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220219
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
919 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Removed POPs this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The showers that developed in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent
parts of Texas this evening have dissipated and are unlikely to
redevelop. Decreased POPs with an update an hour or so ago, but
have just completely removed them with this update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

AVIATION...
22/00Z TAFs. Will keep forecast VFR with gusty south and southeast
winds. Struggling showers and storms across far western Oklahoma
first few hours of forecast are not expected to have any impacts
to terminals although some brief enhancement of the wind may occur
at KCSM. Some models hint at MVFR cigs after 12Z tomorrow but high
resolution models tend to keep this plume of moisture just south
and east of KSPS and KOKC/KOUN. Will not include this forecast
cycle but will monitor trends for 06Z issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection has begun over west Texas, and scattered or isolated
storms are expected to affect far western Oklahoma as well by
mid-evening. Large CAPE values suggest the possibility of severe
storms...again. Increasing mid-level temperatures should help
shut down convection for the next day or two.

A large upper-level wave is still forecast to edge slowly east
this weekend and into next week. This will bring rain chances to
the far western parts of Oklahoma this weekend, then spread across
the remainder of our forecast area late in the weekend and early
next week. Its slow movement makes it challenging to pin down
the geographical extent of the expected rain at any given time.

In addition to the increasing chances for rain, the change in the
upper-air pattern will also bring cooler weather to the southern
Plains. Temperatures will drop to near the seasonal average around
Sunday, then below average for early next week.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  89  69  88 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         75  89  70  88 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  71  92 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           73  90  69  86 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  90  71  89 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         72  90  70  91 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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