Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 140308
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK EVENING UPDATE TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT... CLEARING ACROSS FAR NRN
OK HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP A TAD QUICKER THIS EVENING. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AIDING IN TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL OK CURRENTLY. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFULLY COOL AND
CALM OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...
WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED AREAS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THINK LOW CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
ERODE...THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE LOWS DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER. HOW WARM REMAINS A BIG QUESTION AS CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLE MENTION
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT.
THINK HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ADDED LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH. DID NOT MENTION THUNDER DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY.

MONDAY...MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND
EAST OF I-44 WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT NEAR A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...BUT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS NEARLY EACH
DAY...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
BESIDES A POSSIBLE DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...BELIEVE
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THURSDAY WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING
NEARBY MID/UPPER TROUGHING WHILE OTHERS SUGGESTED TROUGHING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  80  66  84 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         55  80  65  88 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  81  68  88 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           51  83  63  87 /   0  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     50  80  65  84 /   0  10  20  40
DURANT OK         57  78  66  84 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/30



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